牛羊全产业链分析及完善思路  

Analysis and Improving of Cattle and Sheep Whole Industry Chain

作　　者：孟阳[1] 张剑波[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国国际电子商务中心,北京100006

出　　处：《农业展望》2017年第12期46-51,共6页Agricultural Outlook

摘　　要：开展牛羊全产业链分析研究工作是进行政府宏观调控、指导产业持续发展的重要基础性工作。在全面梳理牛羊产业链经济关系的基础上,从供给、需求、成本和价格等方面构建研究指标体系,运用自回归积分滑动平均模型、指数平滑模型、向量自回归模型等进行定量分析,预判牛羊肉价格走势。最后,提出了完善牛羊产业链薄弱环节的相关思路。Analysis on the cattle and sheep whole industry chain is an important basic work of the government＇s macroeconomic control and the sustainable development of industry. On the basis of comprehensively combing the economic relationship of the cattle and sheep industry chain, the authors constructed the research index system from the perspectives of supply, demand, cost, price and other factors, and carried out quantitative analysis to predict the price trends of beef and mutton by ARIMA model, exponential smoothing model and VAR model. Finally, relevant ideas were put forward for improving the weak link of the cattle and sheep industry chain.

关 键 词：牛羊 产业链 指标体系 自回归积分滑动平均模型 指数平滑模型 向量自回归模型 价格预测 

分 类 号：F326.3[经济管理—产业经济]