基于互信息和对策理论的配电网中压线路线损影响因素分析  

Analysis of Factors Affecting Medium-voltage Distribution Line Loss Based on Mutual Information and Countermeasure Theory

作　　者：林卓琼 朱俊超[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网责任有限公司东莞供电局,广东东莞523000 [2]广东工业大学自动化学院,广东广州510000

出　　处：《智慧电力》2017年第12期75-79,89,共6页Smart Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51407035)~~

摘　　要：配电线损率是电网企业综合性技术经济指标,其涉及面广、影响因素复杂,评估考核指标多。针对目前供电部门在线损分析中存在的无法兼顾各层级指标之间的关系问题,提出了一种分析配电网中压线路线损影响因素新方法,该方法通过构建涵盖线路结构指标、线路运行指标、线路技术装置指标的线损评估体系,采用互信息和对策理论数学建模方法计算所构建评估指标对线路线损的相对影响度,进而利用全概率和贝叶斯统计公式计算高线损产生概率与重要特征变量间的关系。最后通过实例验证所提方法的准确性和实用性。Line loss rate of distribution network is a comprehensive important economic index for power grid enterprises. It has a wide range of complicated factors and more evaluation indexes. So the paper proposes a new method of analyzing the factors that influence medium-voltage distribution lines loss to enhance complete compatibility among indicators on all levels of power supply department. In the method, the line loss evaluation indicator system, including structure, operation and technical equipment, is established ; the influence of the indicators on the line loss is calculated using mutual information concept and countermeasure theory. Meanwhile, the relationship between the high probability of the line loss and important characteristic variables is analyzed by using total probability theorem and Bayes formula. Finally, the accuracy and practicality of the method is verified through an example.

关 键 词：互信息 对策理论 配网中压线路 线损分析 

分 类 号：TM711[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]