气候变化背景下东北三省春玉米产量潜力的时空特征  

Spatial-temporal variations of spring maize potential yields in a changing climate in Northeast China

作　　者：刘志娟[1] 杨晓光[1] 吕硕[1] 王静[1,2] LIN Xiao-mao 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学资源与环境学院,北京100193 [2]宁夏气象科学研究所,银川750002 [3]Department of Agronomy,Kansas State University,2108 Throckmorton Hall,Plant Sciences Center

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2018年第1期103-112,共10页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFD0300101-03);国家自然科学基金项目(41401049;31471408)资助~~

摘　　要：以东北三省春玉米种植区为研究区域,利用当地地面气象观测资料、农业气象观测站春玉米多年试验资料和县级春玉米实际产量资料,使用验证后的农业生产系统模拟模型(APSIM-Maize),分析研究区域春玉米1961—2015年不同水平产量潜力及实际产量的时空分布特征,并解析气候波动对产量潜力的影响.结果表明:1961—2015年,研究区域春玉米潜在产量平均值为12.2 t·hm^(-2),且呈现明显的经向和纬向空间分布,即由南向北递减、西部高于东部.研究区域春玉米可获得产量平均值为11.3 t·hm^(-2),与潜在产量呈相似的分布特征.在目前农户的栽培水平下,春玉米农户潜在产量和农户实际产量全区多年平均值分别为6.5和4.5t·hm^(-2).在品种和栽培管理措施不变的条件下,研究区潜在产量、可获得产量和农户潜在产量总体呈显著减少趋势,减幅分别为0.34、0.25和0.10 t·hm^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1).农户实际产量呈增加趋势,增幅为1.27 t·hm^(-2)·(10 a)^(-1).气候波动使东北三省春玉米潜在产量、可获得产量和农户潜在产量年际间波动范围分别为10.0~14.4、9.8~13.3和4.4~8.5 t·hm^(-2).Based on meteorological data, agro-meteorological observations, and agricultural statistical data in Northeast China （NEC）, by using the validated Agricultural Production System sIMulator （APSIM-maize）, the potential, attainable, potential farmers’ and actual farmers’ yields of spring maize during the period 1961 to 2015 were analyzed, and the effects of climate variation on maize potential yield in NEC were quantified. Results indicated that the potential yield of spring maize was 12.2 t·hm-2 during the period 1961 to 2015, with those in northeast being lower than southwest within the study region. The attainable yield of spring maize was 11.3 t·hm-2, and showed a similar spatial distribution with potential yield. Under the current farmers’ management practices, mean simulated potential and actual farmers’ yields were 6.5 and 4.5 t·hm-2, respectively. Assuming there were no changes in cultivars and management practices in NEC, the mean potential, attainable, and potential farmers’ yields of spring maize would decrease by 0.34, 0.25 and 0.10 t·hm-2 per decade in NEC. However, the actual farmers’ yields increased with the value of 1.27 t·hm-2 per decade averaged over NEC. Due to climate variation, year-to-year variations of spring maize potential, attainable, and potential farmers’ yields were significant, ranging from 10.0 to 14.4, 9.8 to 13.3, 4.4 to 8.5 t·hm-2, respectively.

关 键 词：东北三省 玉米 潜在产量 可获得产量 农户潜在产量 农户实际产量 

分 类 号：S513[农业科学—作物学]