晚期乳腺癌患者的ANZ生存预测模型的验证  

A validation analysis of prognostic model of metastatic breast cancer

作　　者：邝钰雯 彭皓玮 赵健丽[2] 林潇[2] 江骏荣 柴洁[2] 汪颖[2] 姚和瑞[2] 

机构地区：[1]广州市执信中学,广州10080 [2]中山大学孙逸仙纪念医院乳腺肿瘤中心,广州510120

出　　处：《岭南现代临床外科》2017年第6期645-648,共4页Lingnan Modern Clinics in Surgery

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(81372819;81572596;U1*601223);广东省自然科学基金(2017A030313828);广州市科技计划(2014J4100170;201704020131)

摘　　要：目的验证晚期乳腺癌患者的生存预测ANZ模型。方法收集本中心104例辅助治疗后出现复发或转移、拟接受一线治疗的晚期乳腺癌患者的临床和病理学资料,利用ANZ模型预测该部分患者的生存时间,分析该模型对中国晚期乳腺癌患者的生存预测的鉴别能力和准确性。结果 ANZ模型对本中心104例晚期乳腺癌患者进行外验证的C-index为0.61(0.53,0.70),calibration plot提示模型预测生存时间与实际生存时间的拟合度稍差。结论 ANZ模型对本中心辅助治疗后出现复发或转移、拟接受一线治疗的晚期乳腺癌患者的生存预测效能欠佳,可能不是一个适合中国患者的生存预测模型,未来需要建立一个基于中国患者人群、具有更全面建模因素的晚期乳腺癌生存预测模型。Objective To validate the ANZ model,a prognostic model of metastatic breast cancer among the patients of our breast cancer tumor center. Methods The data of 104 patients starting first-line treatment for metastatic breast cancer from Jan. 2002 to Dec. 2012 were collected as a validation dataset for ANZ model. Results We validate the ANZ model in 104 metastatic breast cancer patients of our breast tumor center,the C-index is 0.61(0.53,0.70),and the calibration plot suggested that the accuracy of the predicted OS using the nomogram is unsatisfied in the validation cohort.Conclusion ANZ model showed an inferior prognostic power in the metastatic breast cancer patients of our tumor center. A more accurate prognostic model trained by Chinese metastatic breast cancer patients is needed.

关 键 词：晚期乳腺癌 总生存 预测模型 

分 类 号：R737.9[医药卫生—肿瘤]