定向增发中利润承诺的市场反应及长期绩效研究  

A Study on Market Reaction and Long-term Performance of Profit Guarantee in Private Placement

作　　者：沈华玉 林永坚[2] 

机构地区：[1]华北电力大学经济与管理学院,北京102206 [2]厦门理工学院经济与管理学院,福建厦门361024

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2018年第1期64-71,77,共9页Securities Market Herald

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71532012);国家自然科学基金项目(71172056);国家自然科学基金项目(71572167)

摘　　要：利润承诺在非公开发行股份购买资产暨关联交易中很常见,近几年,利润承诺受到实践界和媒体的积极关注,目前,还很少有文献研究定向增发中的利润承诺。本文利用2006~2015年定向增发的样本,手工收集预案中利润承诺的相关数据,对定向增发预案中利润承诺带来的一二级市场反应进行研究。本文用预案价超过基准价比例作为一级市场反应的代理变量,预案公告日的超额收益AR和不同时间窗口的CAR值作为二级市场反应的代理变量。得出如下结论:第一,是否有利润承诺与预案价超过基准价比例、预案公告日的超额收益和不同时间窗口的CAR值显著正相关。第二,利润承诺数量与预案价超过基准价比例、预案公告日的超额收益和不同时间窗口的CAR值显著正相关。进一步研究发现:是否有利润承诺、利润承诺数量与上市公司定向增发后1~4年的业绩显著正相关。本文结果在经过内生性等检验后仍然稳健。The existing literatures have less research on the profit guarantee of private placement, whether profit guarantee will affect the announcement day market reaction to the private placement. In this paper, we study the aforementioned problems with manually-collected samples, and draw the following conclusions. Firstly, whether there is profit guarantee is significantly positive correlation with the ratio of issue price over the benchmark price, AR and CAR. Secondly, the number of profit guarantee is significantly positive correlation with the ratio of issue price over the benchmark price, AR and CAR. Further study found that whether there is profit guarantee and the number of profit guarantee are significantly positive correlation with the performance of Listed Companies in the next 1-4 years. The results of this paper are still robust after the test of endogenous and SO on.

关 键 词：定向增发 利润承诺 市场反应 长期绩效 

分 类 号：F276[经济管理—企业管理]