基于突变理论的海上运输关键节点脆弱性度量  

Vulnerability Assessment of Key Maritime Transport Nodes based on Catastrophe Theory

作　　者：李晶[1] 李宝德 王爽[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026

出　　处：《系统管理学报》2018年第1期32-39,共8页Journal of Systems & Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71473023);教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目(11JZD049);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金资助项目(16YJAZH030)

摘　　要：明确海上运输节点的脆弱性是保障海上运输关键节点安全的重要基础。针对海上运输节点安全威胁突发性特点,构建基于因子分析的改进突变模型,并对我国海上通道关键节点脆弱性进行实证分析。结果显示,我国海上运输通道的关键节点中,台湾海峡脆弱程度最低,望加锡海峡脆弱程度最高,而马六甲海峡、巴拿马运河、英吉利海峡等则处于中间位置。在此基础上,进一步研究了各关键节点脆弱性的主要成因。Defining the vulnerability of maritime transport nodes are indispensable to protect the safety of key maritime transport nodes. Recognizing the uncertainty of influencing factors of maritime transport nodes, this study constructs an improved catastrophe model based on factor analysis and makes an empirical evaluation of the vulnerability of the key nodes of sea lanes in China. The results show that the Taiwan Strait has the lowest level of vulnerability, and the Strait of Makassar has highest level among all key nodes of maritime transport corridor in China. In addition, the Strait of Malacca, the Panama Canal and the English Channel are ranked at the medium level in the evaluation. Based on the vulnerability evaluation of key nodes, the main causes of the vulnerability of key nodes are further revealed.

关 键 词：水路运输 关键节点 脆弱性 突变理论 随机因素 

分 类 号：U698[交通运输工程—港口、海岸及近海工程]