轨道交通对居民交通方式选择的影响研究  

Effect of Rail Transit on Residents' Choice of Traffic Modes

作　　者：晏莉颖[1] 孟祥佩 

机构地区：[1]宁波大红鹰学院基础学院,浙江宁波315175

出　　处：《铁道运输与经济》2018年第1期100-105,共6页Railway Transport and Economy

基　　金：宁波市软科学项目(2016A10065);浙江省教育厅一般科研项目(Y201636752)

摘　　要：为研究轨道交通开通给居民出行方式带来的变化及居民出行方式选择的影响因素,以宁波轨道交通开通后的居民交通方式选择为研究对象,构建交通方式选择MNL模型,利用模型得到参数估计值,通过计算事件发生比,分析变量对居民交通方式选择的影响程度,并验证模型的有效性。结果表明,MNL模型能够有效说明个体出行决策,预测正确率达75.6%。最后,从公共交通、小汽车、非机动车3个角度,有针对性地提出优化宁波市居民出行方式选择的对策与建议,为相关部门调整优化交通结构布局提供理论支持和可行借鉴。In order to study the change of residents＇ traffic modes and the factors influencing residents＇ choice after the operation of rail transit, the paper focuses on researching residents＇ traffic mode choice in Ningbo city, and constructs a MNL model, of which the parameters are estimated. By calculating the ratio of event occurrence, the parameters are used to analyze the influence of variables on residents＇ choice of traffic modes, and the validity of the model is also verified. Results indicate that MNL mode is suitable for studying the trip decision of individuals, and the validity of prediction reaches up to 76.5%. Finally, from three perspectives of public transport, car and no-motor vehicle, this paper puts forward countermeasures and suggestions for optimizing the traffic of Ningbo city, and provides theoretical support for the optimization of traffic structure.

关 键 词：轨道交通 影响因素 交通管理 MNL模型 交通方式选择 

分 类 号：U121[交通运输工程]