基于生存模型的P2P平台生存规律与政策模拟研究  

A Study of the Survival Law and Policy Simulation of P2P Platform Based on Survival Model

作　　者：巴曙松 侯鑫彧 张帅[2] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学金融学院,天津300072 [2]天津大学管理与经济学部,天津300072

出　　处：《当代财经》2018年第1期44-56,共13页Contemporary Finance and Economics

摘　　要：为完善P2P平台监管、避免平台风险,以网贷之家披露的3176家P2P平台为研究样本,遵循久期模型范式,通过研究P2P平台的生存规律得出结论:首先,P2P平台的风险并非一成不变,整体遵循先上升再下降的基本形态。其次,Cox比例风险模型显示,注册资本、注册地、股东背景、业务模式等均会显著影响P2P平台的死亡率;竞争风险模型显示,注册资本、第三方监管等协变量对P2P平台存活状态的影响是有明显差别的。最后,情境转换回归模拟显示,提高注册资本要求、强制进行客户资金第三方托管、禁止天标、强制要求风险准备金和强制进行第三方担保或抵押等五项监管措施,均能够延长P2P平台的生存时间,但监管效应存在显著差异。因此,应该提高行业门槛、遏制跑路风险,同时加强业务指导、促进良性发展。In order to improve P2P platform supervision and avoid the platform risks, this paper takes the 3176 P2P platforms revealed by Online Lending House as the research samples to study the survival law of P2P platforms by following the paradigm of the duration model. The main conclusions are as follows： firstly, the P2P platform risks are not unchangeable; it generally follows the basic form of rising first and then decreasing. Secondly, the Cox model shows that the mortality of P2P lending platforms are significantly affected by such factors as the registered capital, registration place, shareholders＇ background, business models, and so on; the competitive risk model shows that the registered capital, the third-party supervision and other concomitant variables have significant differ- ences in their impact on the survival state of P2P platforms. Finally, the situation transformation re- gression simulation shows that the five supervising measures, i.e., increasing the registered capital re- quirements, the mandatory third-party custody of customer funds, prohibition of day-object, the manda- tory risk reserve and the mandatory third party guarantee or mortgage, can all extent the survival time of the P2P platforms, but there are significant differences in their supervising effects. Therefore, it is recommended to raise the industry threshold and suppress the running-away risks, meanwhile, to strengthen the business guidance so as to promote the healthy development.

关 键 词：P2P 久期模型 比例风险模型 竞争风险模型 

分 类 号：F832.4[经济管理—金融学]