《巴黎协定》背景下中国碳排放情景预测——基于BP神经网络模型  

Scenarios Prediction of the Carbon Dioxide Emissions in China under the Background of the Paris Agreement Based on BP Neural Network

作　　者：董聪 董秀成[1,2] 蒋庆哲 刘贵贤 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大学(北京)中国油气产业发展研究中心,北京102249 [2]对外经济贸易大学国际经济贸易学院,北京100029

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第2期18-23,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部哲学社会科学研究重大课题攻关项目“扩大我国油气战略储备研究”(11JZDH048)

摘　　要：2015年联合国气候变化大会上通过的《巴黎协定》，为2020年后全球应对气候变化行动做出了安排，中国做出的自主贡献承诺及未来的减排效果成为国际关注的焦点。基于趋势外推法、BP神经网络模型与敏感性分析，对2030年中国的碳排放情景做出预测。结果表明，在中短期发展趋势下，2030年我国单位国内生产总值CO：排放比2005年下降60％～65％的目标能够实现，但要实现非化石能源占比达20％这一目标仍任务艰巨，提高可再生能源占比的重要作用不可忽视。The Paris Agreement ratified through the United Nations climate change conference in 2015 has made the arrangement for the global action on climate change after the year of 2020. Meanwhile, the independent contribution commitment of China and its achievement of CO2 reductions in the future become the focus of international attention. Based on trend extrapolation, BP neural network model and sensitivity analysis, China＇s carbon emission scenarios of 2030 are predicted. The results show that in the medium and short term development trend, the goal of letting CO2 emissions per unit of GDP in China decrease 60% to 65% below that of 2005 can be achieved. But it＇s still a daunting work for the proportion of non-fossil energy to reach 20% in China. What＇s more, the important role of improving the proportion of renewable energy is not negligible.

关 键 词：碳排放 《巴黎协定》 可再生能源 神经网络 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]