大肠癌的贝叶斯预测  

Bayesian prediction of colorectal cancer

作　　者：张华[1] 王晶囡[1] 宋丹丹[1] 李曼[2] 马志强 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨理工大学应用科学学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150080 [2]哈尔滨医科大学附属肿瘤医院腔镜室,黑龙江哈尔滨150081 [3]哈尔滨医科大学附属肿瘤医院内八科,黑龙江哈尔滨150081

出　　处：《高师理科学刊》2018年第1期13-17,共5页Journal of Science of Teachers＇College and University

基　　金：黑龙江省大学生创新创项目(201610214069)

摘　　要：根据所查找数据,分别对下消化道报警症(便血、消瘦、贫血、大便变细、腹部包块和肠梗阻)、年龄、家族肿瘤史、饮食习惯和心理健康状况与大肠癌的相关性进行2c检验.检验结果表明,便血、贫血、年龄、家族肿瘤史和饮食习惯是与大肠癌发生密切相关的因素.利用贝叶斯公式根据筛选出的相关因素建立了大肠癌危险人群的预测模型,为病人是否需要进一步的技术性检查提供理论依据.从医院随机抽取某病例进行验证,预测结果与检验结果一致.According to the known data, some correlations factors of the colorectal cancer, including the warning signs in the lower digestive（including hematochezia,marasmus,anemia,narrow stool,abdominal mass,intestinal obstruction）,age,family history of colorectal cancer,diet habit and mental health status are investigated by chi-square test. The results show that hematochezia, anemia,age,family history of cancer and diet habit are closely related to the occurrence of colorectal cancer. Based on the selected correlative factors, establishes a prediction model of colorectal cancer risk groups by Bayesian formula,which provides the theoretical basis for necessity of technical examination to patients. By extracting randomly a case from the hospital, verifies that the predicted result is consistent with the diagnosis result.

关 键 词：大肠癌 危险因素 贝叶斯预测 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计] R735.34[理学—数学]