基于供应安全的天然气进口及储备策略  

Natural Gas Imports and Reserve Strategy Based on Supply Security

作　　者：邹莉娜 任庆忠[2] 

机构地区：[1]重庆科技学院法政与经贸学院,重庆401331 [2]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400030

出　　处：《系统工程》2017年第7期25-32,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71133007);国家社会科学基金资助项目(16BGL136);重庆市教委人文社会科学基金资助项目(14SK006)

摘　　要：供应安全与经济稳定发展是天然气进口需要考虑的重要方面。本文提出兼顾供应安全和消费者剩余总效用最大化的天然气进口效用函数,并由此构建了受天然气储备影响的天然气进口量和国内价格水平动态模型,运用动态优化原理获得了天然气最优储备策略、最优进口量策略以及最优国内价格水平。研究结果表明,兼顾消费者剩余和供应安全总效用下,天然气最优储备规模与最优进口量和最优国内价格水平呈反向变动关系。存在一个天然气最优储备规模区间,此区间内的储备规模不仅能保证天然气进口效用最大化,还能避免国内天然气价格倒挂。天然气最优储备增长率随出口国垄断力量增强或进口国对天然气供应中断风险的厌恶程度增大而放缓,随储备成本系数增大而提高。当出口国垄断力量很强时,进口国对天然气供应中断风险的厌恶程度提高并不会显著影响最优进口量和国内价格水平。过度储备将使储备的供应安全效用降低,并有可能引起进口气价格倒挂,造成经济利润亏损。Supply security and economic stable development are important for natural gas importer. In this paper, gas import utility function concluding supply safety and consumer surplus maximization is proposed. Then, the dynamic model of natural gas imports and domestic price, which are affected by the gas reserves, is constructed, and the optimal explicit solution of the model is obtained by using dynamic optimization theory. The results show that the optimal reserve size of natural gas is inversely related to the optimal import quantity and the optimal domestic price level under the total utility of consumer surplus and supply security. There is an optimal gas reserve range, where the reserve scale can not only ensure imports utility maximization, but also prevent the domestic natural gas prices upside down. The increase rate of optimal reserve growth rate becomes slow with the increase of the export monopoly power or the increase of the degree of the risk aversion of the importing country to the natural gas supply disruption risk, but increases with the increase of the reserve cost coefficient. When the monopoly power of the exporting country is very strong, the risk aversion of the importing country to the natural gas supply disruption risk does not significantly affect the optimal import quantity and the domestic price level. Excess reserves will decrease supply safety utility of gas, and may cause the tone price upside down and the economic profit loss.

关 键 词：天然气进口 供应安全 天然气储备 最优控制 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济]