中国企业嵌入全球价值链的就业效应--基于PSM-DID和GPS方法的经验证据  

The Employment Effect of Chinese Firms Embedded in GVC:Empirical Evidence Based on PSM-DID and GPS Methods

作　　者：吕越[1] 吕云龙[2,3] 莫伟达 

机构地区：[1]对外经济贸易大学中国WTO研究院,北京100029 [2]南开大学经济学院,天津300071 [3]南开大学中国特色社会主义协同创新中心,天津300071

出　　处：《财经研究》2018年第2期4-16,共13页Journal of Finance and Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71503048,71503140); 国家社会科学基金项目(15CJL042); 对外经济贸易大学优秀青年学者培育计划(17YQ07)

摘　　要：就业是最大的民生,探讨通过开放来提高保障和改善民生水平是全球价值链福利效应分析的核心议题。文章利用2000-2006年中国工业企业数据库和中国海关进出口数据库中的数据,基于目前最权威和准确的企业层面价值链嵌入度指标,采用倾向得分匹配-倍差法(PSM-DID)和广义倾向得分法(GPS)对价值链嵌入如何影响企业就业的问题进行了实证研究。研究发现,全球价值链嵌入对就业有显著的促进作用,尤其是资本密集型企业、技术密集型企业、民营企业和东中部企业,其价值链嵌入的就业效应最为显著。进一步研究发现,全球价值链嵌入会通过出口效应、中间品替代效应和跨国公司价值链布局效应等三个渠道作用于企业就业。随后的研究还表明,嵌入价值链时间越长的企业,获得的就业促进效应越为突出。最后,研究还发现就业水平与价值链嵌入度成倒"U"形关系,即边际改善效应从递增向递减转变。The global value chain（GVC）has been the main pattern of global production arrangement in the modern era of globalization since the 1960 s.And during the period,China has successively become the largest trading nation,the second largest foreign investor,and one of the countries with the highest participation in GVC across the world.According to the data of ‘China Statistical Yearbook＇,the number of urban and rural employees in China has maintained an average annual growth of about 2.95 million since the entry to the WTO.However,but as the 19 th National Congress Report emphasizes that ‘what Chinese society now faces is the contradiction between unbalanced and inadequate development and the people＇s ever-growing needs for a better life＇,differences in the level of employment growth among regions,industries and types of ownership still exist in China.In fact,the employment problem has always been the biggest livelihood issue owing to its direct correlation with the welfare improvement and the stable development of the society.Therefore,to explore ways to achieve sustained employment growth through opening-up and at the same time gradually eliminate the employment gap among sectors,regions and ownership will surely be the top priority of China＇s structural reform in the long term,and should be also included in the subject of further promoting opening-up and giving full play to the positive welfare effect of deeply integrating into the GVC division of labor system.From above perspectives,this paper focuses on the overall effect of the GVC embedment on not only employment growth,but also the employment structure,including heterogeneous and intrinsic influences on enterprises in different regions,industries and ownership types,thus providing more realistic and optimized path support for realizing the strategic goal of full employment for the ‘13 th Five-Year Plan＇.This paper uses the merged data of China＇s ‘Industrial Enterprise Database＇ and ‘China Customs Import and Export Database＇ from

关 键 词：就业 价值链嵌入 全球化 企业 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]