中国代际收入流动测度及致因  

The Measurement and the Causes of Intergenerational Income Mobility in China

作　　者：邹薇[1] 马占利 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,武汉430072

出　　处：《云南财经大学学报》2018年第2期13-23,共11页Journal of Yunnan University of Finance and Economics

摘　　要：基于CHNS数据,对中国代际收入流动性进行分析,通过优化估计方法和严谨的数据处理,得到中国2011年代际收入弹性为0.45左右。采用分位数回归和转换矩阵进一步分析表明,近年来中国低收入阶层代际收入弹性较大,父代处于最低收入阶层的子代仍处于最低收入阶层的比率相对稳定在36%左右,贫困存在固化现象。运用多项式Logit模型分析发现,人力资本是影响代际收入流动的主要因素,其影响大小随着教育程度的增加而增加,迁移也能显著提升子代收入的向上流动,特别是对于低教育水平的子代而言。Based on the CHNS data, this paper analyzes the intergenerational income mobility in China. By using optimal estimation method and careful data processing, the authors find out that China＇s intergenerational income elasticity in 2011 was around 0.45. Quantile regression and transition matrix are used to make further analysis, and the results show that the intergenerational income elasticity of China＇s low - income class is higher in recent years. The ratio for the offspring to stay in the low - income class if their parents belong to the lowest income class is relatively sta- ble at about 36% , and this means a cure phenomenon in poverty. The Muhinomial Logit Model analysis shows that human capital is the main factor influencing the intergenerational income mobility, and the influence increases with the increase of educational level. Migration significantly pro- motes the up - flow of offspring income, especially for offspring with low level of education.

关 键 词：代际收入弹性 分位数回归 转换矩阵 多项式Logit模型 

分 类 号：F222.34[经济管理—国民经济]