基于完全信息博弈原理的虚拟水战略研究  

Complete Information Game Analysis of Virtual Water Strategy

作　　者：支援[1] 王秀峰[1] 梁龙跃 李凤翔[1] ZHI Yuan;WANG Xiufeng;LIANG Longyue;LI Fengxiang(School of Economics, Guizhou University, Guiyang Guizhou 550025, Chin)

机构地区：[1]贵州大学经济学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第3期202-207,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目“虚拟水视角下的战略新兴产业水资源利用机制分析及节水调控研究”(16YJC790150);贵州省科学技术基金计划项目“基于虚拟水的产业用水结构分析及节水路径研究”(黔科合基础20161034);贵州省教育厅高等学校人文社会科学项目“基于虚拟水的战略新兴产业水资源利用分析及调控研究”(2016qn35);贵州大学引进人才科研项目“基于虚拟水的区域水资源利用驱动力分析及未来用水路径选择研究”(2015003)

摘　　要：虚拟水战略是平衡区域水资源禀赋差异、提高水资源利用效率、保障水资源安全的新理念和管理手段。但在区域贸易实践中，如何将虚拟水战略与经济发展需求有效结合，实现经济利益与虚拟水的科学调度、水资源的合理利用相协调，构建新型水资源经济模式，保证虚拟水战略的落实，还有待研究。本研究围绕区域制定经济发展与贸易模式的决策过程中对虚拟水战略的接受程度，构建了区域间关于虚拟水战略的完全信息的博弈模型，探索其中的收益与决策规律。结果表明：各区域均选择符合虚拟水战略的发展模式，是博弈的总体最优结果，要实现这一均衡，需要在政策与管理措施方面加大对实行虚拟水战略的扶持干预力度，设置合理的激励、提高用水效率、并促进各区域建立长期的贸易合作关系。Virtual water strategy provides a new theory and method to balance the differences of regional water resources, improve water-use efficiency, and ensure the safety of water resources. However, the approach to combine virtual water strategy and economic development effectively, to balance economic benefits, scientific scheduling of virtual water and rational use of water resources, and to construct a new economic framework of water resources still need to be studied. This study introduces the complete information game theory to analyze virtual water strategy. Focusing on the regions＇ different acceptable degrees of virtual water strategy in their process of making economic development and trade patterns, a complete information game model is constructed to analyze the relevant payoffs and decision rules. The results show that the equilibrium in which all regains take virtual water strategy is the optimal overall solutions. To achieve this equilibrium, the policy and management measures should be strengthened to support the implementation of virtual water strategy, including setting reasonable incentives, improving water-use efficiency, and promoting the establishment of long-term trade relations and cooperation between the regions.

关 键 词：虚拟水战略 区域发展 完全信息博弈 

分 类 号：X196[环境科学与工程—环境科学]