营改增对地方财力格局的影响与地方财税体制改革--以湖南省为例  

The Influence of “Replacing Business Tax with VAT Reform” on Local Fiscal Revenue and Structure and Local Fiscal and Taxation System Reform——A Case Study of Hunan Province

作　　者：刘建民[1,2] 唐红李 吴金光[2] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学经济与贸易学院,湖南长沙410079 [2]湖南财政经济学院财政金融学院,湖南长沙410205

出　　处：《湖南大学学报（社会科学版）》2018年第1期57-63,共7页Journal of Hunan University(Social Sciences)

基　　金：湖南省社科基金决策咨询专项重大课题：“营改增全面实施后地方财税体制重构研究”(16JCA001);国家社会科学基金项目：“中国式财政分权的区域经济效应与完善地方税体系研究”(14BJY159).

摘　　要：以湖南省为例,本文运用ARIMA模型对营改增带来的实际减税效应进行了测度。营改增对营业税具有明显的减税效应,但对增值税有一定的增税效应,综合来看,营改增实现了总体税负只减不增的政策目标,且总体减税规模出现先增后减的趋势。营改增全面实施后,湖南省地方财力格局发生了一系列新的变化,地方财政压力倒逼新一轮地方财税体制改革,建议从重构地方税体系,建立政府间财力与事权、事权与支出责任相适应的财政关系,推动分税制改革等方面着手,加快建立现代财税体制。Taking Hunan Province as an example,this paper uses ARIMA model to measure the actual tax reduction effect brought by the"Replacing Business Tax with VAT Reform".The study finds that the reform has obvious tax reduction effect on business tax,but it has increase effect on value-added tax.On the whole,the reform has realized the policy objective of reducing the overall tax burden,and the overall scale of tax cuts appears to increase first and then decrease.The local fiscal revenue and structure of Hunan Province has undergone a series of new changes after the implementation of reform.Local financial pressure forcing a new round of local fiscal and taxation system reform,it is proposed to reconstruct the local tax system,establish intergovernmental financial relationship that finance compatible with authority,and authority is compatible with expenditure responsibility,promote tax-sharing reform and other aspects,to speed up the establishment of modern fiscal and taxation system.

关 键 词：营改增 减税效应 地方财力格局 地方财税体制 ARIMA模型 

分 类 号：F062.9[经济管理—政治经济学] F810.4