收费公路费率与不同货类货车流量关系的灵敏度分析  

Analysis on Sensitivity of Relationship between Toll Rate and Traffic Volumes of Different Goods

作　　者：边超[1] 崔洪军[1] 刘召伟 

机构地区：[1]河北工业大学,天津300401 [2]中国路桥工程有限责任公司,北京100011

出　　处：《公路交通科技》2018年第2期152-158,共7页Journal of Highway and Transportation Research and Development

摘　　要：针对收费公路费率与不同货类货车流量的灵敏度分析问题,以目前现有的货类展开聚类分析获得的3大货类作为基础,提出了基于货类属性的效用函数。然后运用Logit模型获得了同一OD对间各条路径货类货车的流量,构建起在每条收费公路的均衡分布模型。利用灵敏度分析法剖析了收费公路费率与该路径上货类货车流量的关联性,提出了以"社会效益最大、分货类定费率"为原则的定价机制。以唐津高速公路、沿海高速公路及205国道为例,选取煤炭类货车为研究对象,利用Logit模型获得了煤炭类货车位于这3条不同收费公路的流量比例,用灵敏度分析法分析了这3条收费公路费率和煤炭类货车流量的关系。分析结果证明:这3条平行收费公路费率的升降会对煤炭类货车的路径选取造成影响。费率提高(降低),该路径的车流量会减少(增多),相应的其他平行道路的车流量会增多(减少);费率调整越大,车流量变化越明显,进一步干扰货流量在整体路网的流量分配、收益值以及货车行程总耗时等指标,当3条公路费率分别调整到某合理值时,能够实现路网收益最大、货车行程总耗时最小、社会效应最大的目标。In terms of the toll rates and sensitivity analysis of the traffic volumes of trucks with different types of cargo, the existing cargo categories are clustered and analyzed into3 major types of cargo, based on which, the utility function related to the attributes of cargos is proposed. Then, the traffic volume of trucks on each route between the same OD pair is acquired by using Logit model, and the equilibrium distribution model of each toll road is constructed. The sensitivity analysis method is used to analyze the correlation between the road toll rate and the truck traffic volume on the route, and a pricing mechanism based on the principle of ＂the largest social benefit and the fixed freight rate＂ is put forward. Taking the Tangshan -Tianjin Expressway, the Coastal Expressway and National Highway 205 for an examples, by choosing the coal truck as the research object, and the volume ratios of the coal truck on the 3 toll roads are obtained by using Logit model, and the relationships between the rates of the 3 toll roads and the traffic volume of coal trucks are analyzed by sensitivity analysis method. The analysis finding shows that （ 1 ） The rise and fall of the toll rates of the 3 parallel toll roads will affect the route selection of the coal truck. As the rate increases （ decreases）, the traffic volume of this route decreases （increases） while the traffic volumes of other parallel roads increase（decrease） accordingly. （2） The larger the rate adjustment, the more obvious the traffic volume changes, which will further interfere the volume distribution, the return value and the total travel time of the trucks in the whole road network. When the rates of the 3 highways are adjusted to reasonable values respectively, the goal of the largest road network revenue, the shortest total travel time, and the greatest social effect will be realized.

关 键 词：运输经济 灵敏度分析 聚类分析 效用函数 均衡配流 

分 类 号：F540.4[经济管理—产业经济]