美国气候新政背景下的中国未来CO_2排放情景预测  

Future CO_2 emissions projection of China based on U.S. new climate policy

作　　者：丑洁明[1] 代如锋 董文杰[1,2] 班靖晗 胡川叶 CHOU Jie-Ming;DAI Ru-Feng;DONG Wen-Jie;BAN Jing-Han;HU Chuan-Ye(State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China;School of Atmospheric Sciences, SunYat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China)

机构地区：[1]北京师范大学地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室,北京100875 [2]中山大学大气科学学院,珠海519082

出　　处：《气候变化研究进展》2018年第1期95-105,共11页Climate Change Research

基　　金：国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFA0602703);国家自然科学基金项目(41575001);北京师范大学自主科研基金学科交叉重大项目(2015KJJCA14)

摘　　要：本文应用LMDI分解分析方法对中国2000—2014年生产部门CO_2排放量变化做因素分解分析,同时结合STIRPAT模型建立CO_2预测模型,分析2017—2030年中国的CO_2排放情况。结果表明,经济增长和能耗强度变化对中国CO_2排放量变化的影响分别为114.9%、-22.6%。基于预测模型变量构建未来情景,设定正常路线、减排路线和激进路线3条路线,共包含9种情景。正常路线的低碳情景和减排路线的基准情景下可实现2025年达到CO_2排放峰值,减排路线的低碳情景可实现2020年达到排放峰值。In this paper, the LMDI decomposition method is used to analyze the CO2 emission in the production sector in China during 2000-2014, and the CO2 projection model is established by combining the STIRPAT model to analyze the possible CO2 emission of China during 2017-2030. The results show that economic growth and energy intensity are the two most important factors infuencing the change of CO2 emission in China. The contribution rates are 114.9% and -22.6%. Three routes are set, which are normal route, emission reduction route and radicals route, a total of 9 scenarios. Low carbon scenario of normal route and benchmark scenario of emission reduction route could achieve CO2 emissions peak in 2025, and low carbon scenario of emission reduction route could achieve peak emissions by 2020.

关 键 词：CO2排放预测 LMDI方法 情景分析 中国排放峰值 美国气候新政 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学] X32