基于中介真值程度度量的航班起飞风险评估方法  

Flight Operation Risk Assessment Based on Measurement of Medium Truth Degree

作　　者：谢华[1] 朱学华[1] 刘继新[1] 陈海燕[2] 

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106 [2]南京航空航天大学计算机科学与技术学院,南京211106

出　　处：《交通运输工程与信息学报》2018年第1期106-114,共9页Journal of Transportation Engineering and Information

摘　　要：航班起飞风险评估能够对影响航班起飞安全的因素进行有效的识别、分析与评估,是保障航班起飞安全的重要手段与方法。本文研究了基于中介真值程度度量的模糊综合评估方法,对不同风险指标的真值程度度量过程与参数设置方法进行了设计,并基于中介真值程度度量值构造了模糊评判矩阵。文章最后采用国内某机场航班运行历史数据对所提出方法进行了验证,结果表明,基于中介真值程度度量的模糊综合评估方法能够较准确地评估航班起飞风险值,评估结果能够为航班起飞风险管控提供辅助决策支持。Flight departure risk assessment can identify, analyze, and evaluate the safety-related factors of flight departure, which plays a critical role in ensuring the safety of a flight. The paper proposes a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method based on the measure of medium truth degree. Using various risk indicators, we constitute the intermediate fuzzy evaluation matrix. The proposed method is tested based on historical flight operation data of a domestic airport. Results show that the proposed method can accurately assess the flight departure risk, which provides an auxiliary decision support tool for flight takeoff risk control.

关 键 词：风险评估 指标体系 模糊综合评估 中介真值 

分 类 号：V328[航空宇航科学与技术—人机与环境工程]