The vulnerability evolution and simulation of social-ecological systems in a semi-arid area: A case study of Yulin City, China  

半干旱地区社会—生态系统脆弱性演化与模拟——以中国榆林市为例（英文）

作　　者：陈佳 杨新军 尹莎 吴孔森 邓梦麒 温馨 

机构地区：[1]College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Northwest University [2]Shaanxi Key Laboratory of Earth Surface System and Environmental Carrying Capacity, Northwest University

出　　处：《Journal of Geographical Sciences》2018年第2期152-174,共23页地理学报（英文版）

基　　金：National Natural Science Foundation of China,No.41571163;Northwest University Doctorate Dissertation of Excellence Funds,No.YYB17016

摘　　要：Taking the semi-arid area of Yulin City as an example, this study improves the vulnerability assessment methods and techniques at the county scale using the VSD(Vulnerability Scoping Diagram) assessment framework, integrates the VSD framework and the SERV(Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability) model, and decomposes the system vulnerability into three dimensions, i.e., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Firstly, with the full understanding of the background and exposure risk source of the research area, the vulnerability indexes were screened by the SERV model, and the index system was constructed to assess the characteristics of the local eco-environment. Secondly, with the aid of RS and GIS, this study measured the spatial differentiation and evolution of the social-ecological systems in Yulin City during 2000–2015 and explored intrinsic reasons for the spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability. The results are as follows:(1) The spatial pattern of Yulin City's SESs vulnerability is "high in northwest and southeast and low along the Great Wall". Although the degree of system vulnerability decreased significantly during the study period and the system development trend improved, there is a sharp spatial difference between the system vulnerability and exposure risk.(2) The evolution of system vulnerability is influenced by the risk factors of exposure, and the regional vulnerability and the spatial heterogeneity of exposure risk are affected by the social sensitivity, economic adaptive capacity and other factors. Finally, according to the uncertainty of decision makers, the future scenarios of regional vulnerability are simulated under different decision risks by taking advantage of the OWA multi-criteria algorithm, and the vulnerability of the regional system under different development directions was predicted based on the decision makers' rational risk interval.Taking the semi-arid area of Yulin City as an example, this study improves the vul- nerability assessment methods and techniques at the county scale using the VSD （Vulner- ability Scoping Diagram） assessment framework, integrates the VSD framework and the SERV （Spatially Explicit Resilience-Vulnerability） model, and decomposes the system vul- nerability into three dimensions, i.e., exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity. Firstly, with the full understanding of the background and exposure risk source of the research area, the vulnerability indexes were screened by the SERV model, and the index system was constructed to assess the characteristics of the local eco-environment. Secondly, with the aid of RS and GIS, this study measured the spatial differentiation and evolution of the so- cial-ecological systems in Yulin City during 2000-2015 and explored intrinsic reasons for the spatial-temporal evolution of vulnerability. The results are as follows： （1） The spatial pattern of Yulin City＇s SESs vulnerability is ＂high in northwest and southeast and low along the Great Wall＂. Although the degree of system vulnerability decreased significantly during the study period and the system development trend improved, there is a sharp spatial difference be- tween the system vulnerability and exposure risk. （2） The evolution of system vulnerability is influenced by the risk factors of exposure, and the regional vulnerability and the spatial het- erogeneity of exposure risk are affected by the social sensitivity, economic adaptive capacity and other factors. Finally, according to the uncertainty of decision makers, the future scenar- ios of regional vulnerability are simulated under different decision risks by taking advantage of the OWA multi-criteria algorithm, and the vulnerability of the regional system under different development directions was predicted based on the decision makers＇ rational risk interval.

关 键 词：social-ecological systems （SESs） VSD assessment framework VULNERABILITY Yulin City 

分 类 号：X171.1[环境科学与工程—环境科学]