基于景气状态的中国科技创新驱动经济增长预警方法研究  

Research on the Early Warning Methods of Economic Growth Driven by Science and Technology Innovation In China based on the Boom State

作　　者：杨武[1] 杨淼[1] 赵霞 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学东凌经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《科技进步与对策》2018年第4期1-9,共9页Science & Technology Progress and Policy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71273025)

摘　　要：利用中国科技创新景气指数和宏观经济景气指数合成中国科技创新驱动经济增长指数,将该指数划分为5个景气状态预警区间,运用先行合成指数预测模型、判别分析、预警信号灯系统等多种方法对中国科技创新;经济增长预警问题进行研究,规范了区域科技创新驱动经济增长预警研究方法体系。In this paper,China's economic growth driven by scientific and technological innovation boom index is synthesized by using China's scientific and technological innovation boom index and the macroeconomic boom index.The driven index is divided into five boom warning interval.The paper studies the early warning of economic growth driven by China's scientific and technological innovation by using the methods of leading composite index prediction,ARIMA model,discriminant analysis and early warning signal lamp system.The paper further standardizes the research method system on early warning of economic growth driven by regional science and technology innovation.

关 键 词：科技创新 经济增长 预警方法 先行合成指数预测 ARIMA模型 判别分析 预警信号灯系统 

分 类 号：F204[经济管理—国民经济]