基于可靠度分析的甘肃舟曲泄流坡滑坡风险评价  

Risk Assessment of Zhouqu Xieliupo Landslide based on Reliability Analysis in Zhouqu County of Gansu Province

作　　者：刘东飞 王雄师[2] 杨欢 舒和平 

机构地区：[1]兰州大学资源环境学院西部环境教育部重点实验室,兰州730000 [2]甘肃省科学院地质自然灾害防治研究所,兰州730000

出　　处：《山地学报》2017年第3期323-331,共9页Mountain Research

基　　金：国家科技支撑计划项目(2011BAK12B05)~~

摘　　要：基于野外勘察与室内试验,拟以舟曲泄流坡滑坡为研究对象。采用传递系数法对滑坡稳定性进行分析,利用Monte Carlo法得到滑坡不同工况下的失稳概率,且引入条件概率分析不同诱因下滑坡失稳的年概率;易损性以承灾体野外调查和统计分析为基础,运用赋值法估算泄流坡滑坡潜在的财产损失和人口伤亡风险值;因此建立单体滑坡风险评价模型,探讨单体滑坡风险评价技术方法。研究结果表明,泄流坡滑坡在地震加暴雨条件下具有中危险性;在≥50 mm暴雨条件或者地震条件下具有高危险性,财产最大风险为34.75万元/年,人口最大风险为0.03人/年,人口风险超过了国际上暂定的社会容许标准,应采取监测观察、工程治理等相关手段进行风险管理。Based on field surveies and laboratory experiments,-the stability of Xieliupo landslide in Zhouqu County was investigated by transfer coefficient method. The probability of annual unstable landslide was estimated by the Monte Carlo method under different conditions when the conditional probability was introduced. The calculation of the vulnerability depends on the field investigation and statistics of hazard-affected bodies and the assignment method was applied to evaluate the potential risk of economic loss and casualties. The single landslide risk assessment model and its related technologies were established and discussed,respectively. The results suggested that Xieliupo landslide had a middle risk to occur when earthquake and heavy rain occurred simultaneously. However,it would have a high risk when heavy rain（ precipitation ≥50 mm） or earthquake occurred. The maximum property loss was 0. 3475 million yuan per year and the maximum deaths was 0. 03 person per year,which was more than the current international society standard. Therefore,the risk management by different methods（ i. e. monitoring and observation,project management,etc.） should be adopted to avoid it.

关 键 词：蒙特卡洛法 失稳概率 风险评价 泄流坡滑坡 

分 类 号：P694[天文地球—地质学]