房地产依赖症与危机时期的稳增长绩效  

Real Estate Addiction and Growth Stabilization Effect during Economic Crises

作　　者：郭峰[1] 洪占卿[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海财经大学公共经济与管理学院 [2]中国人民银行上海总部金融服务一部营业部

出　　处：《经济学报》2017年第3期18-40,共23页China Journal of Economics

基　　金：国家社会科学基金青年项目(批准号:16CJY065);中国博士后科学基金面上项目(批准号:2015M580901)的资助

摘　　要：对房地产的过于依赖,导致中国国民经济出现"产业空心化"的特征,进而影响了危机时期财政刺激政策的稳增长绩效。利用2006—2011年地级市面板数据,本文评估了2008年全球金融危机爆发后中国政府采取的备受争议的经济刺激计划的稳增长绩效,发现相对于非危机时期,危机时期政府财政支出确实对经济起到了稳定作用,但在高度依赖房地产投资的地区,稳增长绩效遭到削弱;并且,引入政治激励的进一步分析表明,地方经济对房地产投资的依赖还弱化了年轻官员利用地方资源稳定经济增长的激励效果。China＇s economy depends its growth on real estate industry, leading to an industrial hollowing economy, which may weaken the growth stabilization effect during economic crises. Based on the panel data of prefecture level cities during 2006-2011, this paper studies the growth stabilization effect of China＇s stimulus package after the recent global financial crisis. It finds that, compared to non-crisis period, government expenditure has stabilization effect on local economic growth under crisis period. However, the more the local economy depends its growth on real estate industry, the more the growth stabilization effect would be weakened. Moreover, the incentive is weakened by real estate addiction for a relatively young local governor in better stabilizing local economy compared to his/her peers in order to get promoted.

关 键 词：金融危机 稳增长 房地产依赖症 政治激励 

分 类 号：F124.1[经济管理—世界经济] F299.23