ARIMA模型预测乌鲁木齐市吸毒人群艾滋病病毒感染状况  

Prediction on the prevalence of HIV/AIDS among drug addicts in Urumchi City with ARIMA model

作　　者：张曼[1] 王云霞[1] 王凯 娄鹏威 芮宝玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]乌鲁木齐市疾病预防控制中心,新疆乌鲁木齐830026 [2]新疆医科大学医学工程技术学院数学教研室

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2018年第3期310-312,共3页Practical Preventive Medicine

基　　金：乌鲁木齐市科学技术局资助项目(Y161310024)

摘　　要：目的预测乌鲁木齐市吸毒人群HIV感染情况,为防治工作提供科学的参考依据。方法利用乌鲁木齐市2009-2016年吸毒人群艾滋病感染率数据,应用ARIMA模型,预测乌鲁木齐市吸毒人群2017-2019年HIV感染率。结果预测吸毒人群艾滋病感染率的模型为ARIMA(2,1,0),拟合效果较好,利用模型外推预测乌鲁木齐市2017-2019年的吸毒人群HIV感染率分别为7.7%、6.4%、5.9%。结论运用ARIMA(2,1,0)模型模拟预测吸毒人群HIV感染率在时间序列上的变化趋势较为方便适用,乌鲁木齐市吸毒人群HIV流行呈下降趋势。Objective To forecast the infection status of HIV among drug addicts in Urumchi City so as to provide scientific references for its prevention and control. Methods According to the data about the infection rates of HIV/AIDS among drug addicts in Urumqi City from 2009 to 2016, the infection rate of HIV among drug addicts in Urumqi City during 2017-2019 was predicted by autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA） model. Results The established model regarding forecasting HIV infection rate among drug addicts was ARIMA （2, 1, 0） model and the fitting Results showed that the model was excellent. The predictive Results showed that the infection rates of HIV in Urumqi City in 2017-2019 were 7.7%, 6.4% and 5.9% respectively. Conclusions ARIMA （2, 1, 0） model is convenient and suitable to predicting the changing tendency of HIV infection rate in time series. The Results reveal that HIV epidemic among drug addicts in Urumqi City shows a downward tendency.

关 键 词：吸毒人群 HIV ARIMA模型 预测 

分 类 号：R181[医药卫生—流行病学]