“禁摩限电”政策效果的综合分析  

Comprehensive Analysis of the Influence of "Banning Motorcycles and Limiting Electrical Bicycles" Policy

作　　者：陈祎霏 宋沛颖 徐旻怡 蔡志杰[1,2,3] 曹沅 

机构地区：[1]复旦大学数学科学学院,上海200433 [2]上海市现代应用数学重点实验室,上海200433 [3]非线性数学模型与方法教育部重点实验室,上海200433

出　　处：《数学建模及其应用》2017年第3期55-66,共12页Mathematical Modeling and Its Applications

基　　金：国家基础科学人才培养基金(J1103105)

摘　　要：深圳市于2016年进一步加强了"禁摩限电"的交通管理。本文建立了多个数学模型,分析了这项政策对深圳市交通的影响,对摩托车与电动车进入车流造成的安全与拥堵问题进行了模拟,从多个方面比较了"禁摩限电"实施与否的差异。通过分析与模拟,肯定了深圳市出台"禁摩限电"政策的合理性,并为更好地施行该政策提出了一些建议。The policy of ＂ banning motorcycles and limiting electrical bicycles＂ has been strengthened in Shenzhen since 2016.In this paper,several mathematical models are built to evaluate the influence of transportation of this policy.Several different cases of traffic flow are simulated.The simulation results show the reasonability of this policy.Finally,some suggestions of executing the policy are given to the transportation department.

关 键 词：禁摩限电 马尔科夫链 交通流 随机模拟 成本模型 

分 类 号：O29[理学—应用数学]