基于粒计算的尾矿库安全评价不确定性研究  

Study on uncertainty in safety evaluation of tailing ponds based on granular computing

作　　者：王喜梅 陈建宏[1] 杨珊[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中南大学资源与安全工程学院,湖南长沙410083 [2]中南大学安全科学与工程博士后流动站,湖南长沙410083

出　　处：《中国安全生产科学技术》2018年第1期42-48,共7页Journal of Safety Science and Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51374242);国家自然科学基金项目青年基金项目(51404305);中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M572269);湖南省科技计划项目(2015RS4060);中南大学研究生科研创新项目(1053320180062)

摘　　要：为了进一步提高尾矿库的安全管理水平,更好地预防和控制尾矿库事故,分析了尾矿库安全评价不确定性的3个来源:地理环境的不确定性、评价依据的不确定性、评价过程的不确定性;结合粒计算的理论知识,对尾矿库安全评价的不确定性从一级粒度、二级粒度上进行研究,并构建尾矿库安全评价不确定性的商空间模型;根据模糊聚类方法,计算影响元素的相似矩阵,建立了尾矿库安全评价不确定性的影响因素的分层递阶结构。结果表明:该研究明确区分了尾矿库安全评价不确定性因素,有利于提高尾矿库评价结果的准确性。In order to further improve the safety management level of tailing ponds,and prevent and control the accidents of tailing ponds better,three sources of the uncertainty in the safety evaluation of tailing ponds were analyzed,including the uncertainty of geographical environment,the uncertainty of evaluation basis and the uncertainty of evaluation process. Combined with the theoretical knowledge of granular computing,the uncertainty in the safety evaluation of tailing ponds was studied from the first class granularity and the second class granularity,and a quotient space model of the uncertainty in the safety evaluation of tailing ponds was constructed. Finally,the similar matrix of the influencing factors was calculated according to the fuzzy clustering method,and the hierarchical structure of the influencing factors of the uncertainty in the safety evaluation of tailing ponds was established. The results showed that this study distinguished the uncertainty factors in the safety evaluation of tailing ponds clearly,and is beneficial to improve the accuracy of the evaluation results on tailing ponds.

关 键 词：尾矿库 安全评价 不确定性 粒计算 商空间 

分 类 号：X936[环境科学与工程—安全科学]