时间序列模型在金沙江干流水沙随机模拟中的应用  

Application of time series model in stochastic simulation of flow and sediment concentration in Jinsha River

作　　者：郭银[1] 周家俞[2] 李怡[1] 陈嘉玉[1] 龙天玮 

机构地区：[1]重庆交通大学河海学院,重庆400074 [2]重庆交通大学重庆西科水运工程咨询中心,重庆400074

出　　处：《水道港口》2017年第6期598-603,共6页Journal of Waterway and Harbor

基　　金：重庆交通大学研究生教育创新基金(20140104);内河航道整治技术交通行业重点实验室开放基金资助项目(NHHD-201501)

摘　　要：在水利工程中,长期(几十年或上百年)的水文序列实测资料对工程的建设、防洪、抗旱以及河流生态保护等方面起着至关重要的作用。然而,在实际工程中,大多数情况下较难以获得某河流特定位置处超过百年的长期水文实测数据。因此,常常需要根据有限的短期水文实测资料对该处的水文序列进行长时间的随机模拟,用以获取更多水文数据样本。文章基于金沙江中游石鼓水文站22 a的实测流量时间序列,采用水文时间序列组成成分分析方法,结合自回归模型和水沙联合随机模型共同建立了该地区的流量时间序列和水沙相关关系,并模拟了工程所在位置处500 a的流量和含沙量结果。此外,文中对模拟的流量结果进行误差分析,以充分验证文章提出的流量时间序列模型的正确性与合理性。文章的研究成果可为新建港口码头及航道工程提供一定的技术支撑。Long-term measured data of hydrological sequence,which extended more than decades or hundreds of years,have significant influence on actual hydraulic engineering,such as project construction,flood control,drought resisting,and river ecological protection,etc. Nevertheless,it is difficult to obtain the tested values including more than 100 years for a specific position of a certain river in practical engineering. Consequently,a large number of long-term samples within hydrological sequence would be determined in terms of combing the limited and relative short-term measurements to the algorithm of stochastic simulation. The tested flow-time sequence containing22 years by Shigu hydrological station located in the middle reaches of Jinsha River were adopted in this paper,and the hydrological time series composition analysis method was considered to comprehensively established a long-term flow-time sequence model and the relationship between flow and sediment concentration by uniting the autoregressive model and the stochastic model of flow-sediment concentration combination. Subsequently,the results of flow and sediment concentration of 500 years were evaluated based on the aforementioned models. Additionally,the relative errors between the simulated flow results and measurements were analyzed to adequately validate the accuracy and reasonable of the methodologies developed in this paper. This finding would provide a significant technical support for the port and waterway engineering.

关 键 词：水利工程 自回归模型 联合随机模型 随机模拟 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]