环境规制对黑龙江省工业碳排放的传导机制及情景预测研究  

Study on Conduction Mechanism and Scenario Prediction of Industrial Carbon Emission in Heilongjiang Province by Environmental Regulation

作　　者：王康[1] 刘学荣[1] 赵靖宇 周嘉[1] 李志学[1] 

机构地区：[1]哈尔滨师范大学

出　　处：《哈尔滨师范大学自然科学学报》2017年第5期100-107,共8页Natural Science Journal of Harbin Normal University

基　　金：黑龙江省哲学社会科学研究规划项目(17YE403);哈尔滨科技局科技创新人才研究专项基金(2016RAXXJ037)

摘　　要：利用2005~2015年黑龙江省工业碳排放量数据,通过中介效应考察环境规制对黑龙江省工业碳排放的影响及传导机制,并在此基础上,对黑龙江省工业碳排放分目标情景和低碳情景两个方案进行情景预测分析.结果表明:环境规制对黑龙江省工业碳排放不仅存在直接抑制作用,而且会通过产业结构、能源结构、外商直接投资和技术进步间接影响工业碳排放.2015~2050年,黑龙江省工业碳排放量目标情景下呈现先上升后下降的趋势,到2020年前后达到高峰,低碳情景下表现为明显下降趋势,并且到2050年目标情景与低碳情景下工业碳排放量基本持平.据此为黑龙江省实施节能减排工作,实现老工业基地的全面振兴提出政策建议.From 2005 to 2015 in Heilongjiang Province industrial carbon emissions data,through the mediating effect,the environmental regulation on the industrial carbon emission in Heilongjiang province and the transmission mechanism is studied,and on this basis,the Heilongjiang Province industrial carbon emissions target scenario and low-carbon scenario two solutions are analyzed. The results show that environmental regulation not only has a direct inhibitory effect on industrial carbon emissions in Heilongjiang,but also indirectly affects industrial carbon emissions through industrial structure,energy structure,foreign direct investment and technological progress. From 2015 to 2050,Heilongjiang Province industrial carbon emissions target scenarios show a downward after rising trend the trend will be arrived highly in 2020 or so,the low-carbon scenario shows a clear downward trend,and the same to the carbon industrial emissions targets for 2050 scenario and low-carbon scenario amount are the basical same. Accordingly, policy recommendations are put forward for the implementation of energy conservation and emission reduction in Heilongjiang province and the comprehensive revitalization of the old industrial base.

关 键 词：环境规制 碳排放 中介效应 情景预测 

分 类 号：X16[环境科学与工程—环境科学]