灰色模型对全国城乡围产儿死亡率趋势预测  

Application of gray model in prediction of perinatal mortality rate in Chinese urban and rural areas

作　　者：戴琼[1] 徐海青[1] 汪鸿[1] 赵职卫[1] 张玄[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖北省妇幼保健院儿童保健科,湖北武汉430070

出　　处：《中国妇幼健康研究》2018年第2期139-141,共3页Chinese Journal of Woman and Child Health Research

基　　金：中国疾病预防控制中心妇幼保健中心科研资助项目(2013FY006)

摘　　要：目的应用DPS数据处理系统建立灰色预测模型GM(1,1),对全国城乡围产儿死亡率进行预测,为妇幼保健工作提供参考。方法以2006-2015年城乡围产儿死亡率数据为基础,建立GM(1,1)模型并进行预测。结果城市GM(1,1)预测模型为:x(t+1)=-0.122027exp(-0.068223t)+0.130527,(C=0.1439,P=1.0000);农村GM(1,1)预测模型为:x(t+1)=-0.117048exp(-0.086928t)+0.118098,(C=0.1439,P=1.0000);模型拟合精度优(C=0.1439,P=1.0000),同时利用模型外推预测了今后4年(2017-2020年)我国城市围产儿死亡率分别为:4.07‰、3.80‰、3.55‰和3.31‰;农村围产儿死亡率分别为:4.09‰、3.75‰、3.43‰和3.15‰。结论 GM(1,1)模型对我国城市和农村围产儿死亡率预测效果较好,对我国妇幼保健工作有一定的指导意义。Objective To establish a gray model（GM）（1,1）to predict perinatal mortality rate in Chinese urban and rural areas with Data Processing System（DPS）to provide references for maternal and child health care.Methods The data on perinatal mortality from 2006 to 2015 in Chinese urban and rural areas was collected and a GM（1,1）model for perinatal mortality prediction was established based on the data.Results The mathematic formula for the GM（1,1）established in urban areas was x（t＋1）=-0.122027 exp（-0.068223 t）＋0.130527（C=0.1439,P =1.0000）,and that established in rural areas was x（t＋1）=-0.117048 exp（-0.086928 t）＋0.118098（C=0.1439,P=1.0000）.The matching precision was super（C=0.1439,P=1.0000）.According to the prediction of the established model,the neonatal mortality rates in urban areas 4 years later were 4.07‰,3.80‰,3.55‰ and 3.31‰,respectively,and those in rural areas were 4.09‰,3.75‰,3.43‰ and 3.15‰,respectively.Conclusion The prediction on perinatal mortality rate in Chinese urban and rural areas based GM on（1,1）model is valid and it is valuable for maternal and child health care in China.

关 键 词：围产儿 死亡率 GM(1 1)模型 预测 

分 类 号：R174[医药卫生—妇幼卫生保健]