我国静脉注射吸毒传播艾滋病仓室动力学模型构建及演示  

Establishment and demonstration of compartmental dynamic models in HIV/AIDS transmission among injecting drug users in China

作　　者：丁国伟[1] 王俊杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心,北京102206

出　　处：《预防医学论坛》2017年第12期881-883,891,共4页Preventive Medicine Tribune

基　　金：国家十二五科技重大专项"艾滋病和病毒性肝炎等重大传染病防治"(2012ZX10001-001)

摘　　要：目的通过构建仓室动力学模型,模拟分析评价针具交换对我国静脉注射吸毒人群艾滋病传播、未来的流行趋势、以及基本再生数的影响,为政策制定提供依据。方法使用Matlab 7.0软件构建仓室动力学模型,通过有关数据和参数对模型进行演示,艾滋病二代传播的效率通过基本再生数(R0)表示,流行趋势通过曲线图展示。结果当清洁针具交换覆盖率增大时,静脉注射吸毒人群艾滋病传播基本再生数减小;当覆盖率为0.76时,基本再生数为1;当覆盖率<0.76时,基本再生数>1,则二代感染人数增多,流行程度加大;当覆盖率>0.76时,基本再生数<1,则二代感染人数减少,流行程度逐渐减小。当针具交换覆盖率<0.70时,因静脉注射吸毒共用注射器传播的艾滋病累积数呈现增长的态势,但是增长有一定的自限性,在2015年前后达到平台期,之后逐渐下降。当覆盖率达到0.70以上时,累积数是呈现持续减少态势。结论通过构建仓室动力学模型,评价干预措施对静脉注射吸毒人群艾滋病流行的趋势和影响是可行的。Objective To analyze and simulate the impact of needle exchange on HIV/AIDS transmission,epidemic trends in future and the basic reproductive number among injecting drug users in China, the compartmental dynamic mathematics models were established for providing the basis for policy making. Methods Based on Matlab 7.0 software,deterministic compartmental dynamic mathematic models were developed to describe the efficiency of secondary transmission using the basic reproductive number （Ro） and display epidemic trends through graph of HIV/AIDS. Some data and parameters were used to demonstrate the model. Results With the expansion of needle exchange,the HIV/AIDS transmission a- mong IDUs declined. When the coverage rate of needle exchange was 0.76, the bgsic reproductive number was 1. When the coverage rate was less than 0.76, the basic reproductive number was more than 1, and secondary generation infections and prevalence of HIV/AIDS increased. When the coverage rate was more than 0.76, they went opposite. Although the total cumulative number of living HIV/AIDS cases were expected to rise when the coverage rate of needle exchange were less than 0.70,there was a plateau around 2015. The total cumulative number of living HIV cases were expected to decline continuously when the coverage rate of needle exchange was more than 0.70. Conclusion It is feasible to use compartmental dynamic model to evaluate the effect of intervention strategy and measures on HIV/AIDS epidemic.

关 键 词：艾滋病 动力学模型 注射吸毒 

分 类 号：R152.91[医药卫生—营养与食品卫生学]