考虑碳排放权交易的航空公司动态价格竞争复杂性  

Complexity of Airlines' Dynamic Price Competition with Carbon Emission Trading

作　　者：胡荣[1] 陈琳[1] 张菲菲[1] 朱佳琳 HU Rong, CHEN Lin, ZHANG Fei-fei, ZHU Jia-lin(College of Civil Aviation, Nanjing University of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Nanjing 211106, Chin)

机构地区：[1]南京航空航天大学民航学院,南京211106

出　　处：《交通运输系统工程与信息》2018年第1期6-12,共7页Journal of Transportation Systems Engineering and Information Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71201082);江苏省社会科学基金(15GLC001);中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(NR2014007;NS2015068)~~

摘　　要：为研究碳排放权交易对航空公司动态价格竞争复杂性的影响,运用非线性动力学与博弈理论,建立了具有不同价格调整机制的航空公司动态价格竞争模型,分析了模型均衡点的存在性和稳定性,并通过数值仿真探讨了航空公司CO_2排放系数对价格竞争稳定域、稳定性和均衡结果的影响.研究结果表明:CO_2排放系数超过某一临界值,将会出现分岔、混沌等复杂现象;分岔或混沌现象并非对市场中所有航空公司都是不利的;选取合适的控制因子,延迟反馈控制法可对陷入混沌的竞争模型实施有效的混沌控制;航空公司应积极采取减排措施,以维护市场的有序竞争、提升自身的竞争绩效.To investigate the effect of carbon emission trading on airlines＇ dynamic price competition, the airlines＇ dynamic price competition model based on carbon emission trading is established by using the bifurcation and game theories. The existence and stability of the equilibrium points are discussed, and the influence of carbon emission coefficient on stable region, bifurcation and competition equilibrium are investigated. The results show that when emission coefficient is out of stable region, the bifurcation and chaos will occur. Some airlines may get extra profit from bifurcation and chaos. The dynamic price competition model enables to maintain stable with controlled by time-delayed feedback control method if appropriate control factor is chosen. The airlines need to carry out some mitigating measures in order to maintain ordered market and improve their competition performances.

关 键 词：航空运输 碳排放权交易 博弈论 价格竞争 排放系数 

分 类 号：U8[交通运输工程] N94[自然科学总论—系统科学]