1961-2016年南宁市年降雨量变化特征分析  

Analysis of characteristics of annual precipitation in Nanning during 1961-2016

作　　者：杜懿[1,2,3] 麻荣永 DU Yi1,2,3, MA Rongyong1,2,3(1. College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Structural Safety of Ministry of Education, Guangxi University, Nanning 530004, China ; 3. Guangxi Key Laboratory of Disaster Prevention and Engineering Safety, Guangxi University,Nanning 530004, Chin)

机构地区：[1]广西大学土木建筑工程学院,广西南宁530004 [2]广西大学工程防灾与结构安全教育部重点实验室,广西南宁530004 [3]广西大学广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室,广西南宁530004

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2017年第6期50-55,共6页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(51369005);广西防灾减灾与工程安全重点实验室系统性研究项目(2013ZDX04)

摘　　要：采用水文序列中常用的线性趋势线、距平分析、滑动平均、累积滤波器、Kendall秩次相关和R/S分析等方法,分析了南宁市1961-2016年间的年降雨量变化趋势,此外还采用了Mann-Kendall和Morlet小波分析方法对序列的突变性和周期性进行了检验。结果表明:1961-2016年间,南宁市年降雨量大致呈上升趋势,但不明显,且未来几年内降雨量极有可能继续增加;近10来年,年降雨序列突变频繁,造成这一现象的原因可能是全球气候的变化;1961-2016年间年降雨量序列近似呈13 a的周期,且可能潜在超过30 a的大周期,但由于序列长度限制,无法显现。In this paper,the annual precipitation changing trend during 1961-2016 in Nanning was analyzed by using the linear tendency,anomaly percent,moving average curve,cumulative filter method,Kendall test method and R/S which are commonly used in hydrological sequence. In addition,Mann-Kendall and Morlet wavelet analysis method was adopted to test the mutability and periodicity of the sequence. The results show that from 1961 to 2016,Nanning annual precipitation roughly shows an upward trend,but not obvious,and it is very likely that rainfall will continue to increase in the next few years. In the recent 10 years,the annual rainfall series have changed frequently,which may be attributed to the global climate change. The annual precipitation sequence show the 13 a-period,but there may be a larger period,though it is not shown. The 1961-2016 annual rainfall sequence is approximately 13 years and may potentially exceed the 30-year cycle,but can not be visualized due to sequence length limitations.

关 键 词：水文序列 降雨量 趋势分析 突变分析 周期分析 南宁市 

分 类 号：P426.614[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]