云南省农业旱灾社会脆弱性评价研究  

Study on the social vulnerability assessment of agricultural drought in Yunnan Province

作　　者：龚艳冰 戴靓靓 杨舒馨 GONG Yanbing1,2, DAI Liangliang1, YANG Shuxin1(1. School of Business Administration, Hohai University, Changzhou 213022, China ; 2. Jiangsu Provincial Collaborative Innovation Center of World Water Valley and Water Ecological Civilization, Nanjing 211 lO0,China)

机构地区：[1]河海大学企业管理学院,江苏常州213022 [2]江苏省"世界水谷"与水生态文明协同创新中心,江苏南京211100

出　　处：《水资源与水工程学报》2017年第6期239-243,共5页Journal of Water Resources and Water Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71303074);江苏省社会科学基金项目(14GLC004);中央高校基本科研业务费项目(2015B23914;2015B28014);河海大学常州校区研究生科技创新项目(XZX/14B001-07)

摘　　要：针对云南省近年来旱灾爆发频率、波及范围、持续时间及损失程度等呈现的加重趋势,首先构建干旱扰动下农业旱灾社会脆弱性评价指标体系,运用组合熵-CRITIC法确立指标权重,对云南省近15年来农业旱灾社会脆弱性进行动态评价。结果表明,近年来云南省农业社会经济在干旱扰动下,敏感性和应对能力总体呈现增长趋势,农业社会脆弱性呈现波动下降趋势;旱灾社会脆弱性类型划分结果显示,云南省农业社会脆弱性在干旱扰动下,主要集中于低敏感性、低应对能力,高敏感性、低应对能力和高敏感性、高应对能力3种类型。最后,提出从提高农户防旱抗旱意识,加快农业种植结构调整,积极探索灾后补偿新范式等方面进行农业旱灾风险管理。There is a trend of drought that the frequency,scope,duration and the degree of loss are more and more serious in Yunnan Province. Firstly,the index system of social vulnerability of agricultural droughts under drought disturbance was established,and the index weights were established by using entropy-CRITIC method. and the social vulnerability of agricultural drought in Yunnan Province in recent15 years was assessed dynamically. It turned out that in recent years,sensitivity and coping capacity of agricultural social economy in Yunnan province showed a trend of growth and agricultural social vulnerability showed a downward trend. The classification of the social vulnerability of drought disaster shows that the vulnerability of agricultural society in Yunnan province is mainly focused on low sensitivity,low coping ability,high sensibility,low coping ability and high sensibility and high coping ability. Finally,it puts forward the risk management of agricultural drought by improving the farmers＇ awareness of preventing and fighting against drought,accelerating the adjustment of agricultural planting structure,and exploring the new paradigm of post disaster compensation actively.

关 键 词：农业干旱 组合权重 社会脆弱性评价 云南省 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治] S423[农业科学—植物保护]