考虑水流滞时影响的梯级水电站群短期优化调度研究  

Research on the Hyperbolic Interval Partition Model of Project Cash Flow Risk

作　　者：晋良海 李飞隼[1,2] 罗兆英 陈述 郑霞忠 江新[1,2] 陈雁高 JIN Lianghai1, 2, LI Feisun1,2, LUO Zhaoying1,2, CHEN Shu1, 2, ZHENG Xiazhong1,2, JIANG Xin1, 2, CHEN Yangao3(1. Hubei Key Laboratory of Construction and Management in Hydropower Engineering, Yichang 443002, Hubei, China; 2. College of Hydraulic ＆ Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, Hubei, China; 3. Sinohydro Bureau 7 Co., Ltd., Cheugdu 610081, Sichuan, Chin)

机构地区：[1]水电工程施工与管理湖北省重点实验室,湖北宜昌443002 [2]三峡大学水利与环境学院,湖北宜昌443002 [3]中国水利水电第七工程局有限公司,四川成都610081

出　　处：《水力发电》2018年第4期47-51,共5页Water Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目（51609128）;湖北省重点实验室开放基金项目（2016KSD13,2016KSD06）

摘　　要：项目现金流风险管理不仅关系到工程进度与投资，更牵涉到企业财务周转和资金链安全。为对资金风险进行精细分类管理，从微观上细致划分项目的资金风险区域，探究弓l起现金流波动的风险因素及其特征；阐明风险不确定性环境下模拟项目现金流的蒙特卡洛（Monte Carlo）仿真方法与步骤；建立效用一价值联立函数，阐明现金流风险区划分原则；定义工序的成本指数与收入指数并以其建立坐标系，同时将45°对角线作为标准价值安全线，构建以标准价值安全线为对称轴的2条渐近线为边界的风险区划分双曲线模型。工程应用表明，该模型获得的现金流合理，能够对现金流风险区间进行有效划分，可为项目风险决策提供理论支持。The risk management of project cash flow is an essential issue not only related to project progress and investment, but also involves the enterprise financial turnover and the safety of fund chain. The classification and management of financial risk is studied herein through the micro-division of project＇s financial risk area. Firstly, the risk factors and their characteristics of cash flow fluctuation are explored. Secondly, the Monte Carlo simulation method and steps are performed to simulate project cash flow under a uncertainty environment of financial risk and then the utility-value simultaneous function is established to clarify the principle of cash flow risk division. Finally, the cost index and the income index of the process are defined and the coordinate system is established, at the same time, a straight line that is at an angle of 45 degree is used as the standard value safety line to construct a hyperbolic model with two asymptotic lines as a boundary and with the standard value safety line as a symmetry axis. The engineering application shows that the model can obtain reasonable cash flow and can effectively divide the cash flow risk interval area, therefore which is able to provide theoretical support for project risk decision.

关 键 词：工程项目 现金流 工序价值 风险区间 双曲线 

分 类 号：F406.71[经济管理—产业经济]