基于天气雷达数据的强对流天气下输电线风偏放电预警方法  

Early warning method for wind swing discharging of transmission lines under severe convective weather based on weather radar data

作　　者：熊小伏[1] 王伟[1] 王建[1] 周宁 梁允 XIONG Xiaofu1 ,WANG Wei1, WANG Jian1 ,ZHOU Ning2, LIANG Yun2(1. State Key Laboratory of Power Transmission Equipment ＆ System Security and New Technology, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400044, China ; 2. Electric Power Research Institute of State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, Chin)

机构地区：[1]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400044 [2]国网河南省电力公司电力科学研究院,河南郑州450052

出　　处：《电力自动化设备》2018年第4期36-43,共8页Electric Power Automation Equipment

基　　金：国家电网公司重大基础前瞻科技项目(SG2014-1187);国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900600)~~

摘　　要：夏季多发的强对流天气引起的高频次、大范围的输电线路风偏放电事故是电网"迎峰度夏"面临的主要威胁之一。天气雷达是预测强对流天气的有效工具,在气象与电力行业的融合日益紧密的背景下,提出了一种基于天气雷达数据的强对流天气下输电线路风偏放电预警方法。基于天气雷达对强对流的监测数据,采用两层支持向量机构建了强对流大风预测模型,实现对强对流大风风力的三级预测;根据绝缘子串发生风偏时的几何模型,推导了风偏临界风速与输电线路自身参数的关系;结合风力预测结果和输电线路的风偏临界风速,计算风偏放电概率并发布相应等级的预警。通过算例验证了所提方法的可行性和准确性。The high-frequency and large-scale wind swing discharging accident of transmission lines caused by severe convective weather in summer is one of the main threats for power grid to meet summer peaks. Weather radar is an effective tool for severe convective weather forecasting. With the increasingly close integration between meteorological and electrical industries, an early warning method for wind swing discharging of transmission lines under severe con- vective weather based on weather radar data is proposed. The prediction model of wind level under severe convective weather is constructed by two-layer support vector machine to forecast wind in three levels based on the severe con- vective weather monitoring data of weather radar. According to the geometric model of insulator string swinging under wind, the relation between the critical wind speed of wind swing discharging and parameters of transmission line is deduced. The probability of wind swing discharging is calculated and the corresponding early warning levels are pub- lished, considering the predicted wind level and the critical wind speed of transmission line. The feasibility and accu- racy of the proposed method are verified by examples.

关 键 词：强对流天气 输电线路 风偏放电 天气雷达 预警 支持向量机 

分 类 号：TM75[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]