基于Step-Wise回归分析的京津冀雾霾驱动因素研究  

Research on Driving Factors of Haze in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Step-Wise Multiple Linear Regression

作　　者：李云燕[1] 王立华[1] LI Yunyan, WANG Lihua(Institute of Recycling Economy, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, Chin)

机构地区：[1]北京工业大学循环经济研究院,北京100124

出　　处：《中国发展》2018年第1期6-12,共7页China Development

基　　金：国家社会科学基金研究项目(编号:15BJY059)"基于DPSIR模型框架的京津冀雾霾成因分析及综合治理对策研究";北京市社科基金项目(编号:14JGB036)"京津冀地区PM2.5污染控制政府绩效评估模式的构建"的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：基于京津冀地区雾霾污染特点,选取人口增长、城市化进程、经济发展、能源消费、交通运输、工业生产、建筑行业、环保投资及城市绿化水平九类驱动因素,运用Step-Wise回归分析方法,得出雾霾驱动因素的最优回归方程,定量分析影响京津冀地区大气质量的主要驱动因素。基于该文回归结果提出雾霾防治对策,包括加快降低区域内燃煤污染、强化机动车尾气治理、实现区域内联合监管及联动执法等。By selecting nine driving factors,including population growth,urbanization,economic development,energy consumption,transportation,industrial production,building industry,environmental protection investment and urban greening level,this paper analyzed the characteristics of haze pollution in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region. On that basis,the optimal regression equation on step-wise multiple linear regression（ SMLR） is applied to quantitatively analyze the main driving factors. Several core prevention and control countermeasures,such as speeding up reducing coal-burning pollution in this region,are put forward based on the regression results above and status quo of the region.

关 键 词：雾霾 驱动因素 Step-Wise回归分析 京津冀 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]