城市化、食物消费转型及其生态环境影响  

Urbanization,Food Consumption Transformation and Its Impact on Ecological Environment

作　　者：张少春 闵师 马瑞[3] ZHANG Shaochun, MIN Shi, MA Rui

机构地区：[1]内蒙古财经大学经济学院,内蒙古呼和浩特010070 [2]北京大学现代农学院中国农业政策研究中心,北京100871 [3]北方民族大学管理学院,宁夏银川750027

出　　处：《城市发展研究》2018年第3期13-20,共8页Urban Development Studies

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目"国家食物安全预测预警和发展战略研究(71333013)";中国博士后科学基金资助项目(2017M620536)

摘　　要：利用1981~2015年城乡人口分布与居民食物消费的时间序列数据,定量分析了中国城市化的发展进程、城乡居民食物消费的转型趋势及其生态环境影响,并通过非参数方法估计了城市化与中国食物消费结构转型及其生态环境影响的非线性关系。结果表明:过去三十多年间随着中国城市化水平不断提高,城乡居民的畜禽肉蛋类等食物消费持续增加;城市化与食物消费结构转型增加了居民饮食的碳足迹、水足迹、氮足迹与生态足迹,带来了巨大的生态环境压力和严重的污染问题;随着未来我国城市化步伐的进一步推进与食物消费转型升级,人口、资源与环境压力将日益突出。最后,提出了通过减少食物浪费、提高粮食进口量,缓解我国农业资源与生态环境压力的政策建议。Based on the time series data of urban and rural population and food consumption from 1981 to 2015, this paper quantified the progress of China＇s urbanization, the transformation of urban-rural food consumption and its impact on ecological environment, as well as estimated the non-linear correlations between urbanization, food consumption and its environmental impact by using the nonparametric estimation approach. The results suggested： with the＂ rapid progress of urbanization in the past three decades, the consumptions of meat and egg have been increasing; the transformation of food consumption resulted in the increases of carbon, water, nitrogen and ecological footprints, leading to a large pressure on ecological environment and severe pollutions; with the further development of urbanization and transformation of food consumption in future, the issues on population, resource and environment would become increasingly severe. Hence, this paper recommended to mitigate the pressure on agricultural resources and ecological environment by reducing food wastes and increasing food imports.

关 键 词：城市化 食物消费 碳足迹 水足迹 氮足迹 生态足迹 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]