基于时间序列分析的无为县降水量预测模型的研究  

Study on the precipitation prediction model of Wuwei County base on time series analysis

作　　者：奚立平[1] 蔡文庆[1] 吴海鹰 XI Li-ping;CAI Wen-qing;WU Hai-ying(Anhui Technical College of the Water Resources and Hydroelectric Power, Hefei 231603, China;Wuwei County Meteorological Bureau, Wuhu238300, China)

机构地区：[1]安徽水利水电职业技术学院,安徽合肥231603 [2]无为县气象局,安徽芜湖238300

出　　处：《安徽水利水电职业技术学院学报》2018年第1期50-53,共4页Journal of Anhui Technical College of Water Resources and Hydroelectric Power

基　　金：安徽高校自然科学研究重点项目(项目编号:KJ2017A602)

摘　　要：以无为县为研究区域,利用1957~2016年降水量资料,采用时间序列分析的方法,研究了降水量预测模型。结果表明,无为县年降水量随机性强,相关性弱,采用5年叠加的方法增强序列的相关性,得到了平稳的新序列,对新序列选用ARMA(1,2)模型拟合,精度较高,拟合效果良好,利用该模型对未来的值进行预测,发现无为县5年叠加降水量自2017年至2019年处于下降通道。Taking the example of Wuwei county and using the precipitation materials from 1957 to2016,the paper studies the precipitation prediction model by adopting the method of time series analysis.The result indicates that the yearly precipitation of Wuwei county has a strong randomness and is weak in correlation.By using the method of adding the five-year statistics together,the author has increased the sequence＇s correlation and obtained a stable new sequence.The new sequence is fitted by ARMA（1,2）model,and the result is accurate and good.Further,the future figures are predicted by the model,finding that from 2017 to 2019,the overall rainfall for five years in Wuwei county has a tendency of going down.

关 键 词：降水量 时间序列分析 预测模型 

分 类 号：TV214[水利工程—水文学及水资源]