交互危险行为对双责事故严重程度的影响分析  

Impact of Interacted Hazardous Actions on Injury Severity in Both-at-Fault Crashes

作　　者：江欣国[1] 章国鹏[1] 石小林[1] 夏亮[1] 贾雄文 JIANG Xinguo;ZHANG Guopeng;SHI Xiaolin;XIA Liang;JIA Xiongwen(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China;Jiangmen City Xinhui District Transport Bureau, Guangdong Province, Jiangmen 529100, China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院,四川成都610031 [2]广东省江门市新会区交通运输局,广东江门529100

出　　处：《西南交通大学学报》2018年第2期378-384,共7页Journal of Southwest Jiaotong University

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(71771191)

摘　　要：为了明确交互危险驾驶行为与双责事故严重程度的关系,从驾驶行为方面有效减轻双责事故的危害后果,结合双责事故的特点及各统计分析模型的适用性,采用广义有序logit模型鉴别各种危险驾驶行为交互作用对双责事故受伤严重程度的影响作用,并分析危险驾驶行为对不同等级受伤严重程度的影响规律以及影响机理.研究结果表明:双方驾驶员均偏离车道、双方均分心驾驶、一方超速另一方让行失败、一方超速另一方鲁莽驾驶以及一方违反交通规则另一方让行失败的交互危险行为会显著增加事故严重程度.根据分析结果,提出应对驾驶员做好宣传教育工作促使其养成良好的驾驶行为习惯,并结合超速监测系统、电子执法系统等技术手段加强对危险驾驶行为的监控.In order to understand the relationship between interacted hazardous actions and the injury severity in both-at-fault crashes, and alleviate the crash injury from the perspective of driving behaviour,the generalized ordered logit model was adopted by combining the characteristics of both-atfault crashes and the applicability of each statistical model. This enabled the identification of the effects of the interaction of various dangerous driving behaviours on the severity of both-at-fault crashes. In addition,the influence of dangerous driving on the severity of injuries was also analysed.The results indicated that the effects of both drivers driving left of centre,driving carelessly,speeding and failing to yield,speeding combined with reckless driving and failing to yield,and disobeying traffic rules increased the possibility of severe injuries. The analytic results indicated the need for enhancing driving education programs to promote safe driving, and monitoring hazardous actions using technological tools such as monitoring speed limits and employing electronic police systems.

关 键 词：交互危险行为 双责事故 广义有序logit模型 伤害严重程度 

分 类 号：U491.3[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]