银川市大气气态污染物对人群死亡影响的时间序列分析  

Effects of ambient gaseous pollutants on daily mortality in Yinchuan: a time-series study

作　　者：周健 金梅花[2] 杨艺[3] 张银娥[3] 刘秀英 德小明 李丽萍 李玲 张亚娟 ZHOU Jian;JIN Mei-hua;YANG Yi;ZHANG Yin-e;LIU Xiu-ying;DE Xiao-ming;LI Li-ping;LI Ling;ZHANG Ya-juan(School of Public Health, Ningxia Medical University, Yinchuan, Ningxia 750004, Chin)

机构地区：[1]宁夏医科大学公共卫生与管理学院,宁夏银川750004 [2]宁夏医科大学总医院心内科 [3]宁夏回族自治区疾病预防控制中心

出　　处：《环境与健康杂志》2018年第1期54-57,F0003,共5页Journal of Environment and Health

基　　金：宁夏高等学校科学研究项目(NGY2013071)

摘　　要：目的了解银川市大气气态污染物水平及其对人群死亡的影响。方法收集银川市2013—2015年人群死亡监测数据、大气污染物浓度及气象监测数据,采用时间序列的广义相加模型分析银川市大气气态污染物对人群死亡影响的暴露-反应关系。结果银川市大气SO_2、NO_2的年均浓度均超过GB 3095—2012《环境空气质量标准》二级标准的年平均浓度限值。SO_2日均浓度每升高10μg/m^3,人群循环系统疾病死亡的超额危险度为0.69%(95%CI:0.07%~1.31%);NO_2日均浓度对人群循环系统疾病死亡的影响无统计学意义;银川市大气CO日均浓度每升高1 mg/m^3,人群循环系统疾病死亡的超额危险度为5.83%(95%CI:0.52%~11.42%)。银川市大气SO_2、NO_2日均浓度每升高10μg/m^3及CO日均浓度每升高1 mg/m^3,人群呼吸系统疾病死亡的超额危险度分别为1.39%(95%CI:0.06%~2.74%)、5.92%(95%CI:2.47%~9.49%)及13.73%(95%CI:3.09%~25.46%)。结论银川市大气污染水平相对较高,大气气态污染物浓度对人群循环系统疾病及呼吸系统疾病死亡存在一定影响。Objective To explore the level of ambient gaseous pollutants and the exposure-response relationship between ambient gaseous pollutants and daily mortality in Yinehuan. Methods The daily data on population mortality, air quality, weather conditions in Yinchnan during Jan. 1st 2013 to Dec. 31st 2015 were collected from the related local authorities. The generalized additive model was adopted to analyze exposure-response relationship between ambient gaseous pollutants and daily mortality in Yinehuan. Results The annual average concentration of SO2 and NO2 exceeded the second grade standard ruled by GB 3095-2012 Ambient Air Qulity Standard. A 10μg/m^3 increase of SO2 was associated with an increase of 0.69% （95%CI：0.07%-1.31%） and 1.39%（95%CI：0.06%-2.74%） in eardio- and eerebrovaseular disease mortality and respiratory disease mortality respectively. A 10 μg/m^3 increase of NO2 was associated with an increase of 5.92%（95%CI： 2.47%-9.49%） in respiratory disease mortality. A 1 mg/m^3 increase of CO was associated with an increase of 5.83%（95%CI：0.52%-11.42%） and 13.73% （95% CI：3.09%-25.46% ） in cardio- and cerebrovascular disease mortality and respiratory disease mortality, respectively. Conclusion During the investigated period, the concentration of ambient gaseous pollutants in Yinchuan is higher, and there is a certain exposure-response relationship between ambient gaseous pollutants and daily mortality of eardio- and cerebrovascular disease and respiratory disease.

关 键 词：气态污染物 死亡 循环系统疾病 呼吸系统疾病 时间序列分析 SO2 NO2 CO 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]