管理层预测能力促进了企业R&D投资吗?——基于A股上市公司的经验证据  

Does Management Forecasting Ability Improve Firms' R&D Investments? Evidence from Chinese A-share Listed Companies

作　　者：赵慧[1] 宋婕 张俊民[1] 

机构地区：[1]天津财经大学商学院,天津300222

出　　处：《证券市场导报》2018年第4期13-21,共9页Securities Market Herald

基　　金：国家自然科学基金青年项目"公允价值估计中的管理者自由裁量及其行为后果与治理:基于股权激励表外信息的研究"(71502122);国家自然科学基金面上项目"产权视角下的审计师声誉机制及其经济后果研究"(71272189);教育部人文社会科学研究青年项目"高管股权激励;媒体报道与企业投资迎合行为研究"(14YJC630048)

摘　　要：企业R&D投资决策依赖于管理层的预测能力。以2009~2016年披露R&D投资信息的A股上市公司为样本,实证检验管理层预测能力对企业R&D投资的影响。研究发现:管理层预测能力越强,企业随后的R&D投资越多,且这种促进作用在高环境不确定性、强融资约束的公司更明显。进一步研究发现,管理层预测能力越强,R&D投资对企业未来绩效的促进作用越强。研究拓展了管理层异质性对企业R&D投资决策影响的理论文献,对管理层任命决策以及创新驱动发展战略的长远价值提供了重要的经验启示。Finns＇ R＆D investment decisions depend on managements＇ forecasting ability. Using a sample of A-share Chinese listed companies that disclosed the R＆D investment information from 2009 to 2015, the paper studies the impact of the forecasting ability on firms＇ R＆D investment. This paper finds that the stronger the managements＇ forecasting ability, the more R＆D investments, and the relationship is stronger for firms with higher environment uncertainty and stronger financial constraints. Further, this paper finds that the ability of managements to forecast R＆D investment is conducive to improving the future performance of corporates. This paper extends the theoretical literature on the effect of management heterogeneity on the firms＇ R＆D investment, which provides an important reference for management appointment decision and the long-term value of innovation driven development strategy.

关 键 词：预测能力 R&D投资 环境不确定性 融资约束 企业绩效 

分 类 号：F275[经济管理—企业管理]