应用ARIMA模型预测衢州市手足口病发病趋势  

Application of ARIMA model in predicting incidence trend of hand-foot-mouth disease in Quzhou City

作　　者：来时明 王双青[1] 占炳东 曹国平[1] LAI Shi-ming;WANG Shuang-qing;ZHAN Bing-dong;et al(Quzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention ,Quzhou,Zhejiang 324000,Chin)

机构地区：[1]浙江省衢州市疾病预防控制中心,浙江衢州324000

出　　处：《中国农村卫生事业管理》2018年第4期471-473,共3页Chinese Rural Health Service Administration

基　　金：衢州市科技项目2011086

摘　　要：目的:探讨应用ARIMA模型预测手足口病发病趋势的可行性,为衢州市预防控制手足口病流行提供依据。方法:应用SPSS 19.0对2008-2014年衢州市手足口病逐月发病率建立ARIMA模型,并对2015年手足口病发病率进行预测分析。结果:ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12能较好拟合既往手足口病的发病率,2014年手足口病月发病率预测值和实际值的平均相对误差为7.40%,实际值均在预测95%可信区间内。结论:模型ARIMA(1,0,1)(0,1,1)12能有效地预测手足口病发病趋势,为制定防控措施和策略提供科学的依据。Objective To explore the series ARIMA model for forecasting the epidemic trends of hand-foot-mouth disease（HFMD）,and to provide the evidence for disease control and prevention in Quzhou City.Methods The ARIMA model was established by SPSS19.0 software based on the monthly incidence rates of HFMD in Quzhou City from 2008 to 2014.The rates of monthly incidence in 2015 were predicted.Results ARIMA（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12 model correctly forecasted previous incidences of HFMD.The average relative error between the predictive value and the actual monthly incidence in 2014 was 7.40%.All of the true values fell in the 95%confidence interval.Conclusions The ARIMA（1,0,1）（0,1,1）12 model could predict the incidence trend of HFMD,which provides scientific basis for HFMD control and prevention.

关 键 词：ARIMA模型 手足口病 预测 

分 类 号：R195.4[医药卫生—卫生统计学]