基于Lotka-Volterra模型的云南少数民族地区生态经济系统协调度研究  

A Study on the Coordination of Ecological Economic Systems in Ethnic Minority Areas in Yunnan Province Based on the Lotka-Volterra Model

作　　者：杨红娟[1] 胡峻豪 YANG Hongjuan;HU Junhao(Faculty of Management and Economics, Kunming University of Science and Technology, Kunming Yunnan 650093, Chin)

机构地区：[1]昆明理工大学管理与经济学院

出　　处：《生态经济》2018年第5期60-65,共6页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目“云南少数民族贫困地区生态文明建设关键因素和有效路径研究”(71463034);国家自然科学基金项目“基于生态文明的少数民族农户低碳行为模式研究——以云南为例”(71263030);云南省省院省校合作项目“碳排放交易市场机制下云南企业碳减排效率研究”(SYSX201702)

摘　　要：云南少数民族地区在急于发展经济的过程中,必须关注生态经济系统协调度的变化。文章在综述相关文献的基础上,根据少数民族地区特点选择生态经济系统评价指标,运用熵权法确定生态经济系统的指标权重,采用Lotka-Volterra模型测算2011—2015年少数民族地区生态经济系统协调度,通过神经网络模型分析影响生态经济系统协调度的主要因素,得到：（1）少数民族地区基本符合生态与经济互促模式,但也存在单边抑制和双边抑制现象;（2）生态环境变化对生态经济系统协调度的影响占比约70%,远大于经济发展对于协调度的影响;（3）人均绿地面积、工业用水重复利用率、人均造林面积对生态经济系统协调度影响权重分列前三位。The coordination of eco-economic systems is essential to the economic development of the ethnic minority regions in Yunnan Province. The eco-economic system evaluation index in this paper is selected by reviewing the relevant literature and the actual situation in the minority areas. Taking Yunnan as an example, this paper uses the entropy weight method to determine the index weight of the ecological economic system, and calculates the coordination degree of economic system in the minority regions from 2011 to 2015 according to the Lotka-Volterra model. The main factors influencing the coordination degree of ecological economic system are also determined via the neural network model. The results show that： （1） The development of ecological economic in the minority regions is conformed to be in the promoting mode, but the existence of the ecological environment can unilaterally inhibit its economic development, while some bilateral inhibitions may occur as well; （2） The change in the ecological and environmental indicators are accountable for 70% of the influence in the coordination of eco-economic systems, which is far more influential than the economy; （3） The three factors that have the greatest influence on the coordination of eco-economic system are the green land area per person, the water-reusing rate of industry and the planting area per person.

关 键 词：少数民族地区 生态经济系统 LOTKA-VOLTERRA模型 神经网络模型 协调度 

分 类 号：F205[经济管理—国民经济]