1470-2014年鄱阳湖流域干湿变化与特征分析  

Reconstruction and characteristic diagnosis of dry wet series in the Poyang lake basin from 1470 to 2104

作　　者：万智巍[1] 贾玉连[1] 章鸣[1] 洪祎君 蒋梅鑫[1] WAN Zhiwei;JIA Yulian;ZHANG Ming;HONG Yijun;JIANG Meixin(Key Laboratory of Poyang Lake Wetland and Watershed Research, Ministry of Education School of Geography and Environment, Jiangxi Normal University, Nanchang 330022, China;Key Laboratory of and Surface Pattern and Simulation, Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Re- sources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China)

机构地区：[1]江西师范大学地理与环境学院鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室,南昌330022 [2]中国科学院地理科学与资源研究所陆地表层格局与模拟院重点实验室,北京100101

出　　处：《干旱区资源与环境》2018年第6期114-119,共6页Journal of Arid Land Resources and Environment

基　　金：江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目(GJJ150305);江西省自然科学基金(20161BAB213075);鄱阳湖湿地与流域研究教育部重点实验室开放基金(PK2015003);江西省重大生态安全问题监控协同创新中心项目(JXS-EW-00);江西师范大学博士启动基金(6902)共同资助

摘　　要：根据1470年以来鄱阳湖流域各类旱涝史料,按照地形和流域分区重建的原则选取区域内11个代表站点进行干湿序列重建,通过面积加权法集成了1470~2014年鄱阳湖流域逐年干湿变化序列。相关性分析和配对样本T检验结果表明在0.01显著性水平下重建序列通过了可靠性检验。不同干湿等级发生频率的空间分析表明,鄱阳湖流域东北部为涝、偏涝中心分布区;中西部为旱、偏旱中心分布区;鄱阳湖区附近属于旱涝兼有分布类型。利用MK趋势检验、累积距平分析、MK突变检验、功率谱和小波分析等方法,诊断了鄱阳湖流域近545年来干湿变化的趋势性、阶段性、突变点和周期性。结果表明:干湿变化在长期尺度下有上升趋势,但并不显著。干湿序列主要体现为3个下降阶段、两个上升阶段;其中1470~1550年、1630~1730年、1890~2014年等时间段偏干;1550~1630年、1730~1890年等时间段偏湿。1570年、1660年等年份出现了年际干湿突变。功率谱和小波分析结果显示鄱阳湖流域近545年来的干湿变化具有多时间尺度、多周期特征,主要有2~3年、4~8年、8~13年、24~60年和100年以上的周期变化过程。Based on the existing historical documents and other literature on county in the region of Poyang lake basin from 1470 to 2104,and according to the principles of terrain and watershed,11 representative sites in the area were selected for wet and dry series reconstruction.And annual wet and dry variation series of whole region were integrated by area weighting method.Correlation analysis and paired samples T test results showed that the reconstructed series passed the reliability test at 0.01 significance level.Spatial analysis of the frequency of different wet and dry levels showed that the wet center distributed in northeastern of Poyang lake basin; the dry center distributed in middle-west of Poyang lake basin; and Poyang lake region belonged to both dry and wet types.Using the MK trend analysis,cumulative anomaly method,MK mutation test,moving t test,power spectrum and wavelet analysis,the trend of wet and dry changes,phase characteristic,jumping point and periodicity of Poyang lake basin in recent 545 years were diagnosed.And the results showed that dry and wet changes had an upward trend in the long term,but not obvious.The wet and dry change was mainly embodied in three descending stages and two rising stages.The dry period were 1470 - 1550,1630 - 1730 and 1890 - 2014.And the wet period were 1550 - 1630,1730 - 1890.There had been dry and wet conversion in 1570 and 1660.The results of power spectrum and wavelet analysis show that the wet and dry changes in the Poyang lake basin had many time scales and multi-cycle characteristics.2 - 3 a,4 - 8 a,8 - 13 a,24 - 60 a and 100 a cycle had been identified.

关 键 词：近500年 干湿变化 历史气候 鄱阳湖流域 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]