基于灰色模型的四川省畜牧业产品结构与收入研究  

Study on product structure and income of animal husbandry in Sichuan province based on gray model

作　　者：赵霞[1] 刘琦云[1] 蒙永亨[1] ZHAO Xia;LIU Qiyun;MENG Yongheng(Business School, Guilin University of Technology, Guilin 541004, China)

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学管理学院

出　　处：《黑龙江畜牧兽医》2018年第8期1-5,共5页Heilongjiang Animal Science And veterinary Medicine

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目“桂滇黔少数民族山区农户专业化生产与反贫困路径研究”(12XMZ102)

摘　　要：畜牧业的发展能够有效促进农牧民脱贫。畜产品是连接生产与消费的重要纽带,研究畜产品结构有利于优化市场结构,指导农牧民生产,提高牧业收入。笔者利用灰色关联理论对四川省畜产品与畜牧业收入进行初步分析,并进一步运用灰色GM（1,1）模型对畜牧业收入与畜产品的结构进行预测。结果表明：羊肉、羊毛对畜牧业收入贡献最大,猪肉关联度最小;四川省畜牧产品结构未来3年发展呈现良好稳定的状态,能基本完成脱贫目标。据此提出相应建议。The development of animal husbandry can effectively help farmers and herdsmen out of poverty. Animal products are an important link between production and consumption. Study on animal product structure is helpful to optimize market structure,to guide the manufacture of farmers and herdsmen,and to improve the income of animal husbandry. Grey relation theory was used in this paper to preliminarily analyze animal product and animal husbandry income in Sichuan province,and gray GM（ 1,1） model was further applied to predict animal husbandry income and animal product structure. The results suggested that mutton and wool had the greatest contribution to animal husbandry income,while pork had the smallest relational degree. It was also found that animal product structure in Sichuan province could keep a steady growth in the next three years,which could fundamentally achieve the goal of overcoming poverty. Corresponding suggestions were proposed based on the results.

关 键 词：畜产品结构 畜牧业收入 灰色关联度 GM(1 1)模型 四川省 

分 类 号：F726.5[经济管理—产业经济]