中国水产品出口增长结构分解研究  

Research on structural decomposition of China's aquatic products export-growth:based on revised CMS model

作　　者：邵桂兰[1] 任肖嫦[1,2] 李晨[1] SHAO Gui-lan;REN Xiao-chang;LI Chen(College of Economy, Ocean University of China, Shandong Qingdao 266100, China;College of Economy, Qingdao Agricultural University, Shandong Qingdao 266109, China)

机构地区：[1]中国海洋大学经济学院,山东青岛266100 [2]青岛农业大学经济学院,山东青岛266109

出　　处：《中国渔业经济》2018年第1期46-54,共9页Chinese Fisheries Economics

基　　金：国家社科基金一般项目<我国海洋渔业经济低碳化实现机制研究>(11BJY064);国家社科基金青年项目<21世纪海上丝绸之路沿线港口供应链融合与绩效研究>(15CJY008)相关研究成果

摘　　要：中国水产品出口增长速度远高于世界同期值,但在增长过程中也出现了增长不稳定、出口市场过于集中等问题。为寻求其增长动因,本文基于2000-2015年UNCOMTRADE水产品相关进出口数据,运用修正的CMS模型对中国水产品出口增长进行了结构分解。研究结果表明:中国水产品出口增长趋势稳定,但出口增长率波动较大;出口市场集中且贸易伙伴及份额较稳定;CMS第一层次分解表明,2000-2005年竞争效应发挥主要的促增长作用,2006-2014年的大多数年份中结构效应作用显著;CMS第二层次分解进一步发现,2000-2015年大多数年份中,增长效应发挥着主要作用,不论在推动还是抑制出口增长方面;市场竞争力效应比值多为负值,说明我国水产品在国外市场的竞争力较弱,抑制了出口的增长。The export-growth rate of China＇s aquatic products is much faster than that of the world. But there have been some issues during the growth process, such as unstable growth, too concentrated export markets and so on. In order to identify its growth motivation, this paper decomposes the China＇s aquatic products export-growth using revised CMS model based on the aquatic products＇ import and export data from UNCOMTRADE during 2000-2015. The results show that： the export-growth trend of China＇s aquatic products is steady, but the growth rate fluctuates wildly; the export markets are concentrated, trade-partner and market-share is stable; CMS first-level decomposition demonstrates that competitiveness effect plays the most important role in the aquatic products export-growth during 2000-2005. In most years of 2006-2014, structural effect contributes most. CMS second-level decomposition shows that growth effect plays a major role in most years of2000-2015, whether it is to promote or inhibit the growth of export; market competitiveness effect ratio is negative, indicating weak competitiveness of China＇s aquatic products in foreign markets,which inhibits the growth of exports.

关 键 词：CMS模型 水产品 出口 结构分解 

分 类 号：F326.406[经济管理—产业经济]