我国石油安全评价及预警分析  

Research on Oil Security Assessment and Early Warning Mechanism in China

作　　者：丁广伟 DING Guang-wei(School of Central Asia Economics, Xinjiang University of Finance and Economics, Urumqi, Xinjiang 830012, China)

机构地区：[1]新疆财经大学中亚经贸研究院,新疆乌鲁木齐830012

出　　处：《工业经济论坛》2018年第2期45-54,共10页Industrial Economy Review

基　　金：国家社科基金重大招标项目(编号14ZDA088):中国新疆周边国家经济安全机制比较和整合研究

摘　　要：2016年我国进口原油依存度高达65.4%,过高的石油对外依存度严重影响着我国石油安全。本文综合考虑国内外相关因素,构建影响我国石油安全的指标体系,依据2000-2016年相关数据定量分析我国石油安全现状,发现我国石油安全性整体呈好转趋势。同时,预测2017-2020年我国石油安全趋势,并建立相应预警模型,发现未来几年石油安全综合得分受价格波动等因素影响有所下滑,并从重视替代能源的开发等四个角度提出关于提升我国石油安全的相关建议。The dependence of imported crude oil in China in 2016 is 65.4%, such an over high oil dependence on the external import is a serious problem. Considering the current situation all over the world, index system affecting the oil security of China is established through consideration on the relevant data from the year 2000-2016, discovering an overall improvement of oil security in China. Meanwhile, by forecasting oil security trend of China in the year 2017-2020, and establishing the corresponding early warning model, on can obtain that in the next few years, the overall score of oil security affected by price fluctuations and other factors have declined, and suggestions such as developing the substituted energy are made to improve the situation of oil security in China.

关 键 词：石油安全 安全评价 预警分析 对外依存度 

分 类 号：F270[经济管理—企业管理]