熵-TOPSIS-耦合协调法评价铁路危险品运输系统风险  

Evaluation of risk in railway dangerous goods transportation system by integrated entropy-TOPSIS-coupling coordination method

作　　者：黄文成[1] 帅斌[1] 孙妍 李美霖[1] 庞璐[1] HUANG Wencheng;SHUAI Bin;SUN Yan;LI Meilin;PANG Lu(School of Transportation and Logistics, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu Sichuan 610031, China)

机构地区：[1]西南交通大学交通运输与物流学院

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2018年第2期134-138,共5页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助(71173177);西南交通大学研究生创新实验实践项目(YC201507103)

摘　　要：为定量获取铁路危险品运输系统风险情况,首先,将铁路危险品运输系统分为人、机、物、环、管5个子系统,并阐明各子系统风险因素;然后,综合利用熵权法、逼近理想解排序法（TOPSIS）和耦合协调度模型,提出熵-TOPSIS-耦合协调综合评价法;其次,应用该方法评价我国铁路危险品运输系统风险;最后,就评价结果提出改善建议。结果表明：近年来我国铁路危险品运输系统由有序向无序发展,安全性逐步提升,但人和管理子系统较为薄弱,需采取改善措施,降低耦合效果,保证运输安全。The paper uses a quantitative approach to evaluate the risk in railway dangerous goods transportation system. First, the railway dangerous goods transportation system is divided into five subsystems： personnel,machine,material,environment and management,and the risk factors in each subsystem are identified. Then, an entropy-TOPSIS-coupling coordination comprehensive evaluation method is worked out by integrating the entropy method,the TOPSIS and the coupling coordination degree model. Following this,the method is used to evaluate the risk in railway dangerous goods transportation system in China. Finally,some suggestions are put forward for improvement. The results show that the railway dangerous goods transportation system in China has become safer in recent years as it grows from ordered to disordered,but the personnel and management subsystems are relatively weak and need to be improved,thus to reduce the coupling effect and ensure transportation safety.

关 键 词：铁路危险品运输 系统风险评价 熵权法 逼近理想解排序法(TOPSIS) 耦合协调度模型 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学] U294.83[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理]