神农架灾害规律与防治路径选择  

Disaster feature and control path selection in Shennongjia

作　　者：易寿生[1] 熊川伟 杨亮[1] 赵国胜[2] YI Shousheng;XIONG Chuanwei;YANG Liang;ZHAO Guosheng(Wuhan Branch of The People＇s Bank of China, Wuhan 430071, China;Shennongiia Sub-branch of The People＇s Bank of China, Shennongjia 442400, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行武汉分行,湖北武汉430071 [2]中国人民银行神农架林区支行,湖北神农架442400

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2018年第2期191-200,共10页Journal of Natural Disasters

基　　金：人民银行武汉分行驻神农架林区抗灾救灾工作项目~~

摘　　要：神农架森林资源丰富,旅游经济特征突出。本文采取实地调研与数据定量分析相结合的方法,分析神农架1978年至2016年人口、农作物、房屋、直接经济灾害损失的年际趋势,及区域内各乡镇人口、农作物、经济的暴露度和脆弱性。研究发现,该区灾害损失呈现逐步平稳、降低趋势,极端气候导致多灾并发、交替呈现,承载主体暴露度与脆弱性具有一定关联性,但乡镇之间存在灾损差异、不均衡状态。当地政府应加强监测分析预警;结合长期成本效益,降低易灾区域人口暴露度;结合神农架退耕还草、还林工程,在风险隐患较大的区域进一步增加植被覆盖度;发展旅游经济、拓展碳汇存储经济价值,增加灾害应对和恢复能力。With abundant forest resources, Shennongjia has prominent characteristics of tourist economy. By combining field research with quantitative analysis, this article analyzed interannual trends of population, crops, house and direct economic disaster loss of Shennongjia from 1978 to 2016, and the exposure and vulnerability of population of villages and towns, crops and economy of this area. The research found that in this area, disaster loss was steadily on the decrease, and extreme climate led to the concurrence and alternation of disasters. There is an imbalance between the exposure and vulnerability of carriers, but have differences between villages and towns in disaster loss. Hence, the local government should strengthen monitoring analysis and earning, reduce exposure of population in disaster-prone areas by combining with long-term cost-effectiveness, and further increase the coverage of vegetation in areas with higher risk of hidden danger with programs of returning farmland to grassland and forest of Shennongjia, develop tourist economy, expand economic value of carbon sink storage, and improve the ability to cope with disaster and recover.

关 键 词：神农架 灾害 暴露度 脆弱性 

分 类 号：X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]