基于REOF的四川省高温热浪时空分布特征分析  

Spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of heatwave in Sichuan Province based on REOF

作　　者：蔡元刚[1] 吴婷婷[1] 张文千 蔡怡亨 王劲廷[3] 蒲明[1] CAI Yuangang;WU Tingting;ZHANG Wenqian;CAI Yiheng;WANG Jinting;PU Ming(Mianyang Meteorologic Bureau, Mianyang 621000, China;Climate Center of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610072, China;Nanjing Information Engineering College, Nanjing 210044, China)

机构地区：[1]绵阳市气象局,四川绵阳621000 [2]南京信息工程大学,江苏南京210044 [3]四川省气候中心,四川成都610072

出　　处：《自然灾害学报》2018年第2期201-208,共8页Journal of Natural Disasters

摘　　要：本文采用高温热浪的国家标准计算四川省155个站点1959—2016年5~9月逐日热浪等级并统计热浪天数,采用REOF分析研究四川省高温热浪的时空变化特征,用"取最小分类值法"将四川高温热浪划分为盆地盛夏热浪区、盆周盛夏热浪区、攀西南部初夏热浪区、盆南盛夏热浪区和常年无热浪区5个区域。结果表明:(1)四川省高温热浪自20世纪90年代以来呈明显增多趋势,其间2006年和2016年尤为显著;(2)四川高温热浪具有明显的地域特征,以盆地盛夏热浪区范围最大、高温热浪强度最强,其次是盆周盛夏热浪区,攀西南部初夏热浪区和盆南盛夏热浪区范围较小;(3)各个热浪类型区域的阶段性变化有所不同,盆地盛夏热浪区20世纪60—70年代高温热浪有增多的趋势,80—90年代前期高温热浪偏少偏弱(受凉夏影响,其它各区类似),1995年开始高温热浪增多增强趋势十分明显;盆周盛夏热浪区,1998年以前少有高温热浪,1998年以后增多增强,2016年高温热浪罕见;盆南盛夏热浪区20世纪60年代至70年代高温热浪趋弱,80年代和90年高温热浪天气较少,2003年以后增多增强,2013年高温热浪尤为突出;攀西南部初夏热浪区,2005年以前出现高温热浪的机率较小,2005年以后明显增多增强,2014年强高温热浪最强。This paper used the national standard of high temperature heatwave to calculate daily heatwave grades and count the number of days of heatwave in 155 stations in Sichuan Province during May to September from 1959 to 2016 and used REOF to analyze the spatial and temporal variation characteristics of high temperature heatwave in Sichuan Province. Using the ＇minimum value classification＇ method, the heatwave in Sichuan will be geographi- cally divided into 5 areas, they are ＇ in the basin in midsummer＇ , ＇ around the basin in midsummer＇ , ＇ in the southwest of Panxi in early summer＇ and ＇ perennial without heatwave＇. The results show ： 1 ） High temperature heatwave in Siehuan Province has been shown a significant increase in the trend and it was particularly remarkable in 2006 and 2016 ;2）Sichuan high temperature heatwave has obvious geographical characteristics. The area of ＇in the basin in midsummer＇ is the largest one and has the strongest intensity of high temperature heatwave, followed by ＇ around the basin in midsummer＇ area, and other areas have less impact ;3 ） The stage change of each heatwave type is different. In the area of ＇in the basin in midsummer＇ , high temperature heatwave had an increasing trend from the 1960s to the 1970s, then it became less and weaker from 1980s to the early 1990s, and the increased trend of high temperature heatwave has been very obvious from 1995 ;In the area of ＇around the basin in midsummer＇ , there was a little high temperature heatwave before 1998. After 1998, It is increasing. But the high temperature heat wave of 2016 was rarely seen. In the area of ＇in the south of the basin in midsummer＇ , high temperature heatwave had a decreasing trend from the 1960s to the 1970s, then there was less high temperature heatwave weath- er from 1980s to 1990s, and it is increasing since 2003. In 2013,it was especially prominent. In the area of ＇ in the southwest of Panxi in early summer＇ , the chances of high temperatures before 2005 w

关 键 词：四川 高温热浪 REOF 时空特征 区划 

分 类 号：P462[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] X43[环境科学与工程—灾害防治]