面向突发事件的网络谣言传播主体建模与仿真研究  

Research on Modeling and Simulation of Network Rumor Spread Subjects Facing Emergency

作　　者：兰月新[1] 夏一雪[1] 刘冰月[2] LAN Yue-xin;XIA Yi-xue;LIU Bing-yue(The Chinese People＇s Armed Police Force Academy, Langfang 065000, China;Transportation Vocational College, Tianjin 300132, China)

机构地区：[1]中国人民武装警察部队学院,河北廊坊065000 [2]天津交通职业学院,天津300132

出　　处：《情报科学》2018年第5期119-125,共7页Information Science

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目(15CXW015);河北省科技计划项目(16455602);廊坊市哲学社会科学研究重点指令课题(2018012)

摘　　要：【目的/意义】网络谣言与突发事件相伴而生,已经成为突发事件的"次生灾害",如何治理网络谣言成为网络社会治理的难题,本文面向突发事件研究网络谣言传播主体演化模型,为政府治理网络谣言提供参考依据。【方法/过程】定性分析面向突发事件的网络谣言传播机理,通过定义网络谣言传播主体,构建网络谣言传播主体演化模型,通过数值仿真研究网络谣言传播主体规模、传播主体之间演化关系以及政府辟谣程度等问题。【结论/结果】经过理论建模和仿真分析得出政府治理网络谣言的具体措施,并将其归类得出"无事先防,事初防变,事过防复"的治理策略,最后针对模型拓展问题和面向突发事件的网络谣言传播主体规模预测问题提出了新的研究思路。【Purpose/significance】Network rumors occurs accompanying with emergencies, and has become a ＂secondary disaster＂, how to manage the network rumor is a tough problem to network social governance.Facing the network emergency,the paper studies the spread subject evolution model of network rumor, which can provides the reference for network rumors governance.【Method/process】Making a qualitative analyze of network rumor spreading mechanism for emergencies, through defining the network rumors spread subject,the main spread network rumor evolution model is constructed,the relationships among the degree of rumor governance, the amount and evolution of spread main bodies are studied by numerical simulation.【Result/conclusion】Through theoretical modeling and simulation analysis, the specific governance measures for network rumors are obtained, the management strategies of ＂ prior prevention, early treatment, preventing repeat＂ are concluded. Finally we put forward the new research ideas about the model extending and predicting for the amount of network rumor spread main bodies in the face of emergency.

关 键 词：突发事件 网络谣言 传播主体 微分方程 

分 类 号：G206.3[文化科学—传播学]